The Background
According to a poorly-sourced Wikipedia bio, Louis J. Marinelli, driving force behind Yes California (better known as Calexit) and the [former] interim co-chair of the California National Party (CNP), was born in Buffalo, NY and raised in the area. He went to Iowa to work in the Edwards campaign there at 17 for the 2004 election, but became frustrated when the party chose the overly liberal Kerry. In 2006 he started a Facebook group called Protect Marriage: One Man, One Woman, while he was living in Russia as an English teacher. It eventually became affiliated with the National Organization for Marriage (NOM) and he (according to Wikipedia) was a paid strategist for them. He returned to the US in early 2010 to help with the Summer for Marriage Tour. By late 2010 he had come out in favor of repealing Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell, and fully broke with NOM’s position on marriage equality by April 2011, which brought him to the attention of MSNBC, The Daily Beast, Huffington Post and Talking Points Memo. According to The Daily Beast, NOM spox, Brian Brown, denied that Marinelli was a key player and stated that he was just a “bus driver”:
Bear Republic
“Louis was a bus driver,” Brown said. “It’s pretty hilarious, this idea that he was a top strategist for NOM. He was a part-time consultant. He has since changed his position, and people have a right to change their minds.”
Marinelli falls out of the public eye for a few years after this. He moves back to Russia to teach English, marries a Russian national, and (again, according to Wikipedia) started a movement called Sovereign California around the time that he fell in with Marcus Ruiz Evans and advocate for “sub-national sovereignty.” They began working together and re-branded as Yes California along the model of the Scottish Independence movement. He ran for state assembly, but did not generate much interest or make it past the primary. In 2015 and 2016 he received some friendly puff-piece coverage from the likes of The LA Times and Vice. He is named as a co-founder of the California National Party in the Vice profile while his involvement is otherwise implied in other venues.
And Then There Was Trump
Yes California became relevant to Californians following the 2016 elections who felt that the result was out of step with their values. A recent Reuters poll pegs Californian interest in secession at 32%. This Reuters devotes four paragraphs to Marinelli’s “quixotic campaign”. What it failed to mention is Marinelli’s participation in a Russian backed conference for Western secession movements hosted in Moscow. In December, KQED reported on how heavily Russian state news organization RT and the Communist Party organ Pravda had been covering Yes California prior to anyone in California actually caring. In fact, Marinelli had spoken at a September conference hosted in Moscow for Western secession movements including Catalonia, Ireland, and…Texas. Pravda quotes Marinelli in it’s article “Moscow gathers ‘fifth column’ for Washington”:
‘We’ll need international recognition of our voting in the future, when the referendum is held. We count on the Russian authorities to support us within this issue, as the Crimea also separated from Ukraine due to a referendum. We want to exit from the US the same way,’ Louis J. Marinelli said
The conference was hosted by an organization called Anti-Globalization Movement of Russia (ADR). ADR has been the recipient of Kremlin funds to drive their activities and have subsequently allowed Yes California to use office space in their headquarters as a “California Embassy” to Moscow. It is unclear how much funding the Kremlin provides ADR although it did receive a Presidential grant. ABC News confirms that the conference was funded by the Kremlin, but the head of ADR is evasive about how much of their funding is direct from the government, and Marinelli seems unsure across several interviews.
To make matters more interesting the CNP denies any current relationship to Marinelli. He was one of eight founding members, but has resigned his position as of June 2016, and has had no further involvement with the organization since June, according to CNP Vice Chairperson, Jed Wheeler (via email). Linda Daly, the Los Angeles co-chair of the CNP was in the audience, but not a participant, for a February 13 conference where Marinelli downplayed the influence of Russian involvement. Mr. Wheeler clarified that she attended to correct any potential misrepresentation Mr. Marinelli might make regarding his continued involvement with the CNP.
Marinelli is difficult to pin down politically. His CV purportedly includes stumping for John Edwards and the National Organization for Marriage. Various profiles from his Assembly run peg him as a “moderate liberal” and wanting a devolution of Federal power to the state, although in the most recent interview he indicated he wanted to “establish the kind of liberal and progressive republic that we want in California, but often can’t have because of congress, because of the White House, because of the supreme court.” His current position also hints at a more definitive break with the US than his previous “sub-sovereignty” solution.
Paragraphs 1 and 6 were updated to clarify that Louis Marinelli is no longer involved with the CNP as of June 2016.
Californians realize they lose a good chunk of their funding and utilities by leaving the U.S., right? They have to, right?
Funding may be an issue regardless based on statements Trump has made re: sanctuary cities. Also, CA is generally considered a donor state. Estimates vary based on methodology but the number with the most…currency seems to be that CA receives 78c of Federal money for every dollar they send out in taxes.
Utilities/resources especially water is a whole ‘nother kettle of fish.
That’s one thing I’ve been curious about. Even if you discounted everything else, would California have enough water availability and power supply to exist as a sovereign country?
They will this year.
“Even if you discounted everything else, would California have enough water availability and power supply to exist as a sovereign country?”
Yes. Not immediately, but pretty quickly. The voters would have to get over their aversion to new dams, but that’s all it would take.
And they’d have to spend less time worrying over the fate of the delta smelt and letting that water flow to the Central Valley farmers and ranchers. Once they do that, they’d be a much more formidable economy as an independent state.
This, too.
I actually think independence would get a lot of Californians thinking more rationally about these things. As it is, they’ve mostly internalized an attitude that the Feds will help if anything goes really badly – like the Oroville Dam. Jerry’s already on his knees in DC begging the Donald to help him out with that. Sad.
Most states have this attitude
They’d probably have better luck with desalinization given coastal access. I’m more interested in whether the US would continue supplying basic utilities long enough for them to actually develop an independent infrastructural base.
Ah I didn’t realize. I thought they got more subsidies or funding than they gave out.
It’s a really murky and easily influenced statistic. Calculating a rough estimate of all the federal tax collected from Californians should be easy enough, but the expenditures going to California are impossible to objectively calculate.
For example, should military spending be evenly split into 50 parts, or should the size and population of the state matter, or even, should it be counted at all? What about offshore programs, including fish and wildlife protections and the Coast Guard? It seems weird to give Kansas an equal share of burden for the Coast Guard in comparison to California.
Utilities/resources especially water is a whole ‘nother kettle of fish.
And their immediate incurring and assumption of their share of the National Debt on their books right out of the chute, which they have accrued in good standing. Not only do citizen get an Exit Tax, but this is a legit debt collection, and would be actionable and possibly grounds for a legit war (like the last one ended so well).
This the exact reason why Scotland will never declare independence from the UK, as they have made crystal clear to Scotland that should they secede, they immediate incur their share of UK debt, and will be subject to immediate repayment. That will kill their Moody’s rating, and will draw much ire from the IMF.
If it is true, though, that CA pays more to the US Fed Gov than it receives, wouldn’t the Fed Gov owe *us* money?
for the year, but I think the debt would apply.
No, the National Debt would supercede any payments into the USA Fed Gov, effective immediately, since CA as a state in the Union would no longer exist. CA would get an instant bill for all discretionary entitlement spending, a la CMS (Medicare in particular).
Also, those numbers are sketchy, since actual determination of who receives benefits ultimately could be concretely calculated until the entitlement payments stop, and then reissued as discrete loans on the full faith and credit of an independent CA.
It should be noted that is also one of the primary reasons The South was not permitted to secede, and why The Civil War was fought over national unity and preservation: Money.
Correction: “…could NOT be discretely calculated…”
I see. This is what I would call the difference between what is actually right, and what would actually happen.
As a Californian, I would consider the payments made to the US Fed Gov to be credits against the payouts, and thus, seeing as how we’ve been overpaying for a long, long, time, there’s a balance due.
I would compare the situation more to the UK looking to dump Scotland than vice-versa.
But I’m sure you’re right the US Fed Gov’s sense of entitlement to our money will not go gently into that good night.
As a Californian, I would consider the payments made to the US Fed Gov to be credits against the payouts, and thus, seeing as how we’ve been overpaying for a long, long, time, there’s a balance due.
As trshmnstr astutely notes above:
Those theoretical “overpayments” would not be realised until the payment stop, and the amount of Fed Gov Entitlement Spending (CMS, SSN, SSI, Snap, Sanctuary Cities, Federal Land Holdings, DoE and DoT infrasructure, to name a few. That’s TRILLIONS with a tt) and Defence Spending (yep, you get a bill for that too).
I would compare the situation more to the UK looking to dump Scotland than vice-versa.
No, more like an adult child living with his or her parents after the age of 18, until 18+N == Age of Moving Out, and receiving the entire bill of the time living in house, including all overhead, at the pricing discretion of the parents, payable immediately and not dischargeable in any court. And has an incredibly huge studen loan, car payments, insurances, etc. to boot. even if the child leaving has good income stream(s). CA needs the USA as a Union, otherwise, instant massive debt.
Another example, and a real one as well, is imagine being on SSN or SSI and renouncing and getting hit with every last penny for services rendered, which will far exceed what has been paid in. That’s what people who renouce their citizenship must do, as I noted directly below. CA would force the issue on all her voluntary citizens state and writ large. And FedGov has a legit claim to it, just like The South did, being former members of the Union at one time, and the Union decided to enforce the claim. Slavery and other stuff like that was largely coincidental and a red herring at first.
As long as CA continues to be a member of the USA as a recognised state under the law of the USA, yep Fed Gov has a demonstrable right to monies for services accrued, which I guarantee you will exceed what CA has paid in over the period of her membership as State in these USA.
Addendum: They would also get a bill for expected interest yield on their share of the Federal Debt, calculating their share of the expected interest amount based on how much it would cost to settle the USA’ books over the life of the loan.
That’ a *LOT* of fucking money.
^This is *EXACTLY* how the Renunciation Tax works for Americans who elect to give up US citizenship as expats, and Uncle Sam is rapacious with countries with whom they have tax treaties to act as recovery agents on that debt.
Suffice it to say, the USA has enormous capacity to call in debt enforcement when it so chooses.
That seems to be putting too much faith in the California voters.
Our state is so overrun by New Yorkers that it’s a fucking New Yorker leading the CalExit movement.
smdh
Come to the land of Dixie. We got beaches and great spots to camp and hike.
Been there. You’ve also got humidity that I, as a native Californian, cannot survive.
A New Yorker who seems to have lived very little in CA. As far as I can tell he spends the vast majority of his time in Russia with a nominal address in San Diego. I was unable to find a single clear reference to how much time he has actually spent in the state.
The Russia tie does sound a little suspicious, and that sort of thing is really starting to undermine whatever “movement” there was. I saw someone comment that they supported the idea until they say who *else* supported the idea and then they backed away because they didn’t want to be associated with “those people.” I assumed they meant libertarians, but maybe they meant this guy?
I have my doubts it will go anywhere, as I can already see the unresolved cognitive dissonance in my anti-states’-rights progressive friends who have always believed that the Fed Gov is the solution to all problems. I don’t think they’ll be able to come to any conclusion other than “we must continue to fight to save the rest of the country from the Republicans!”
After everything I’ve read about him, I liked the version of him that was running for Assembly. He was advocating taking on police unions and wanted a devolution of power/responsibilities from the Federal to the State level, but he seems acutely aware of what issues are hot at any moment and when he was running BLM was at its peak influence, so it’s hard to know if that’s something he cared about or if it was something he thought people would be interested in.
I’ll be keeping an eye out for more info on the non-ties between the CNP and Yes California. The CNP sees him as a destructive co-opter and he seems comfortable with people reporting him as being a primary mover of the party. If it goes anywhere as a movement it’d probably be through the efforts of the CNP.
I’m sure they’ll be devoting a great deal of ink in the national press delving into his much more substantial ties to Russia.
Would you feel better if Breitbart covered it?
Maybe with enough Russian influence California will become like our version of Ukraine. I could see some ex KGB types thinking that would be a great op to run on the US. Except I’m not sure anyone in the remaining 49 will be fighting to get it back.
Well done, Jesse.
OT: the weird thing about the avatars is…from the other place I had a mental image of people based on their handles and posting style, and now with the photos that got destroyed. It’s weird. Like when you finally saw a pic of the radio DJ you always listened to????
I can’t look that different than everyone pictured me. I did expect you to look less like two vintage baseball players though.
As an addendum to Jesse, I don’t typically smoke a pipe or look that serious. But I was all out of time looking for a new photo to drop in there.
And on that note, I’ll probably change my avatar tonight.
I never imagined you with either a beard or a tortilla.
It’s a crepe.
*hands in SoCal membership card*
Isn’t crepe just French for tortilla?
*hands in NorCal membership card*
I thought it was a dental dam. huh.
*startled applause*
Sounds like the start of a new study… The Efficacy of Crepes and other Tortillas as a Dental Dam.
I guess I did.
Wow, those Russians are impressive. First, they installed their man as the leader of the free world. And now they’re working to break up the U.S.A. Start learning Russian before it’s too late, guys. Привыкайте, друзья, скоро все законы и указы в Америке будут публиковаться только на русском.
I don’t think they’re doing anything particularly impressive. My read is that Marinelli is a self-aggrandizing huckster and the Kremlin sees podunk movements like this as a way of being difficult without doing anything wrong. As Pravda jokes:
They are impressive as the boogeyman. Scheming in the US, France, and now California. I’m not sure if they accomplished anything they got blamed for — I’m already tired of rolling my eyes. But everyone loves to exaggerate their influence these days.
Just six years ago the news about a network of Russian spies brought up nothing but moose and squirrel jokes. How things have changed!
Don’t forget Estonia! And – Lithuania? I’m trying to remember – Team Blue has a list they’re circulating now.
Привыкайте, друзья, скоро все законы и указы в Америке будут публиковаться только на русском.
Да, мой друг соглазен, что так много правда говорешь,-)
If CalExited, how much of Cal would immediately exit it, probably right back to the US?
If Cal’s exit takes place by county, I’d bet most would stay. all of the northeast.
Start with everything on this map:
https://www.arcgis.com/home/webmap/viewer.html?webmap=8047eda3656e4241b75463a5451ba9e2
I knew the west had a lot of fed land, but didn’t know cali had that much.
Just under 50%
Can I be the carpetbagging military governor of Fort Ord?
How well did that argument work for Ft Sumter?
I mean, eventually the North got to keep it, but it took 4 years.