Is there a less fair sport than football? Put another way, you may recall the Cleveland Indians recently completed 22-game winning streak – well, twenty-two games in baseball covers 13.6% of a team’s schedule. Going into Sunday, twenty-eight of the NFL‘s thirty-two teams have played 12.5% of their schedule. And eight of them are the baseball equivalent of 0-20 to start their season.
After Thursday night’s epic near-comeback, the San Francisco 49ers dropped to 0-3. Starter Brian Hoyer played by far his best game of the season in defeat, posting a passer rating of 98.0 following an abysmal week two rating of 48.2; it’s possible playing the Rams defense at home a week after playing the Seahawks in Seattle might have played a role in each of those performances. Or maybe Brian Hoyer is just now hitting his stride after three weeks, at age 32, and the Niners horrid start definitely won’t prompt sports media figures to call for the Niners to bring back Colin Kaepernick. Against those same two teams at the end of last season, Kaepernick posted passer ratings over 100 in both games. The Niners split those two games.
(The woke sports media loves to cherry-pick stats in Kaepernick’s favor; I thought I’d save them the trouble)
Enough about a terrible team that’s going to get way too much press in the coming week; let’s talk about teams and matchups people give half a damn about.
AFC WEST
Denver @ Buffalo
Oakland @ Washington
Kansas City @ LA Chargers
My favorite division in football this year, and it was pretty damn good last year. The Chiefs, Raiders, and Broncos are all 2-0. Even the 0-2 Chargers are rated highly by pro-football-reference.com, so it’s really the division the NFC East was supposed to be. (The NFC East is the white people of NFL divisions if you ask me) Because the Chargers are better than their record, because they’re at home, because Kansas City is probably feeling a little bit confident about being 2-0 and winning the last five games in this matchup, the pick HAS to be the Chargers, right? I’m going with KC anyway. In fact, the road team’s got all three of these.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore @ Jacksonville
Pittsburgh @ Chicago
Cincinnati @ Green Bay
Cleveland @ Indianapolis
What a clunker schedule for the AFC North this week. On the plus side, we’ll be one step closer to Marvin Lewis losing his job after the Packers take the Bengals apart. After getting embarrassed by Atlanta yet again, with a pissed off Aaron Rodgers and company coming back to Lambeau I don’t see any other result possible. Cleveland is supposed to be on the rise and Indy is pretty terrible at the moment – take the Colts anyway. (Part of the problem with rising teams is that they lose winnable games) Pittsburgh should emulsify the Bears, which leaves the Ravens and Jags. This game intrigues me for a couple of reasons: 1) Leonard Fournette vs the Ravens’ defense. Fournette seems to be from the Earl Campbell school of running backs, which should lead to a highlight play or two – whether it is at his expense or that of a Ravens defender remains to be seen. 2) Jacksonville looked like a bonafide, no-shit NFL team in week one at Houston, then got turned inside out in week two at home against the Titans. It’ll be interesting to see which team shows up for this one. I’m picking the Jags, but it’ll be a close one either way.
AFC SOUTH
Baltimore @ Jacksonville
Cleveland @ Indianapolis
Houston @ New England
Seattle @ Tennessee
I don’t understand how it is the Texans play the Patriots so often. Is this like college, where some powerhouse like Alabama pays Northwest Technical Union State to come in and lose 78-3? Are the Texans getting any benefit whatsoever out of this arrangement? This will be their seventh game in six years. And it’s been such a one-sided series, ESPN hired Sabrina Rubin Erdely to cover the game. Seattle is overrated, as the Titans will demonstrate.
AFC EAST
Denver @ Buffalo
Houston @ New England
Miami @ NY Jets
We’ll see the universe contract before the NFL does, but in the unlikely event of contraction the Jets are my pick for the ol’ Goodell Guillotine. Their uniforms are boring. Their mascot name stupidly rhymes with a bunch of other pro teams in the area. Here is their history in brief:
1) Joe Namath guarantees Jets win in Super Bowl III
2) Joe Namath does an ad for pantyhose
3) NOTHING AT ALL HAPPENS FOR 30+ YEARS
4) Joe Namath hits on Suzy Kolber
5) Head coach Rex Ryan is a foot fetishist
6) Brett Favre…plays for the Jets? How did this…what??
7) The greatest play in the history of professional sports
That’s it. Other inept franchises have had some memorable coaches and players. The Browns had some strong teams in the 80s. The Lions had Barry Sanders and Calvin Johnson. The Bills went to four straight Super Bowls. The Chargers had some fun teams in the late 70s and again in the past 10 years. But the Jets? The most famous Jet after Joe Namath and Mark Sanchez is Fireman Ed.
NFC WEST
LA Rams 41 @ San Francisco 39 (F – 9/21)
Seattle @ Tennessee
Dallas @ Arizona
Probably my least-favorite division in football. The Rams seem to be doing some things right, but the Niners remain a horrid mess, Seattle continues to gradually decline, an inch at a time, from the heights that brought them to two straight Super Bowls. Yes, Russell Wilson is a better QB now than he was then, but his offensive line is not a good one. Beast Mode is long gone, and the defense is not what it used to be. Here, let me show you:
2012 – W/L (11-5) Points Allowed (1st), Yards Allowed (4th)
2013 – W/L (13-3) Points Allowed (1st), Yards Allowed (1st) Won SB
2014 – W/L (12-4) Points Allowed (1st), Yards Allowed (1st) Lost SB
2015 – W/L (10-6) Points Allowed (1st), Yards Allowed (2nd)
2016 – W/L (10-5-1) Points Allowed (3rd), Yards Allowed (5th)
Granted, it’s extremely early, but the Seahawks are 5th and 13th in those same two categories thus far. And Seattle’s Point Differential has taken a hit over the past few seasons:
2013 – +186
2014 – +140
2015 – +146
2016 – +62
And the Cardinals? They’ve got to be the worst good team in football if it’s not the Lions – or if they’re even still any good. A couple of years ago they had a receiving corps that was the envy of the NFL: Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, and Michael Floyd could have made a lot of QBs look good. Fitzgerald was the old man at 32, but Brown and Floyd were 25 and 26 respectively. Well, Fitzgerald is even older now but still around; so is Brown, but his 2015 looks like a flash in the pan, and Floyd wrote his own ticket right out of town. (Okay, technically the police wrote the ticket) And Carson Palmer appears to be on his last replacement hip – have the Cardinals planned for life after Carson? Since he’s currently backed up by Blaine Gabbert and Drew Stanton, I’ma say NO.
NFC NORTH
Pittsburgh @ Chicago
Cincinnati @ Green Bay
Atlanta @ Detroit
Tampa Bay @ Minnesota
Poor Vikings. It’s always something. Losing four Super Bowls, the Herschel Walker trade, the Gary Anderson miss, the Blair Walsh miss, Brett Favre’s interception against the Saints, Bridgewater’s knee…hard to think of a more snakebit franchise in sports. But take heart, Vikes fans – when it does happen, and it will, it will be one of the best days of your life. I’m 42, and I’ve already seen things happen in sports no one ever thought possible: the Red Sox down 0-3 to the Yankees, of all teams, and coming back to win. Cleveland winning a championship of any kind, but in that case against a 73-win Warriors team that was up 3-1. THE FUCKING CHICAGO CUBS. You really think it can’t happen in Minnesota? I remember when the Patriots used to suuuuu-uuuuck. The Warriors were terrible for generations. The Kansas City Royals went 30 mostly wretched seasons in between championships. No, it’s coming one day, you guys. Just hang in there.
NFC SOUTH
Pittsburgh @ Chicago
Tampa Bay @ Minnesota
New Orleans @ Carolina
If Drew Brees plays a full season this year and next, he’ll have more career passing yards than anyone. Doesn’t mean the Saints are any good, but wow, what a career this midget has had. Yes, Brees had Jimmy Graham at his best; who did he have at wide receiver? Marques Colston? Colston was a hell of a player, and quite underrated, but we’re not talking a Jerry Rice/Randy Moss-caliber wideout. Brees didn’t exactly have Walter Payton in the backfield, either. No, Brees brought the New Orleans Saints, one of the NFL’s long-suffering franchises prior to his arrival, to the NFL summit with good talent around him. Put another way: Aaron Rodgers is my personal gold standard at QB, and he’s had better weapons around him than Brees, yet Brees has achieved about as much as Rodgers has. Just thought someone ought to eulogize Brees since he’s 38 and his career’s almost over. Who would have thought signing a 32-year old running back was a bad idea?
NFC EAST
Oakland @ Washington
Dallas @ Arizona
NY Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
The NHL used to have the Campbell Conference and the Wales Conference. Within those two conferences were the Adams, Norris, Patrick, and Smythe divisions. It’s not clear why the NHL abandoned those names for divisions and conferences; if anything, other sports should have copied the NHL. Going with East and West raises interesting questions, like “What is Dallas doing in a division with Washington DC, Philadelphia, and New York?” In a system similar to the old NHL, we’d simply call it the Douchebag Division and everyone would understand perfectly.
And those Giants…hoo boy. They’re so bad, no one’s going to care in a few weeks. Right now people are freaking out because they think the Giants are somehow capable of righting the ship at this point. I don’t see how.
FWIW and Links:
…the NFL might force the Chargers into returning to San Diego. Only if the Powder Blues are mandatory, along with this song before every home game
…in 2016 Colin Kaepernick had a better interception rate than NFL MVP Matt Ryan. You see, Kaepernick is still a great player! Statistics don’t lie!
…The NFL hates college QB stars? This guy says so, and his evidence is nothing more than a classic sky-is-falling assertion:
The NFL has a quarterback problem. The talent discrepancy is bigger than it’s ever been in my time covering the league and the draft
(Imagine his quote is in Comic Sans for my amusement) If this disparity exists, it should be easy to point to statistical evidence that would show it.
Fantasy Studs and Duds from NFL.com – I’m only sharing this link because of this stupid quote:
Jameis Winston has struggled against top NFL defenses.
Most QBs thrive against top defenses – not Winston!
Anyway, hopefully your gambling goes well enough that you can buy better replacement orphans, and know that you will suffer humiliation when my area sports team defeats your area sports team.
Come on now. In those 30 years, the Jets were among the very best in all of sports at killing the spirit of their fans.
Also, Mark Gastineau says “WHAAAAAAAAAAT?”
Also, still one of the best sports rants I’ve ever seen.
Even though the guy is a raging prog, he does some funny shit.
He knows Cleveland sucks (doesn’t seem to connect it to his politics).
♪♫♬ We’re not Detroit! ♪♫♬
Until now I did not know those videos were made by the “factory of sadness” guy.
This season has sucked so bad I can’t remember when I was less excited for Sunday to roll around.
That said, I just ordered Red Zone 15 minutes ago so I could also get the BTN (which are bundled together) and watch my Buckeyes in a half hour. I’m hopeful that Red Zone can save my NFL watchability. Because I’m simply at a loss for what else could do it.
*Flips keyboard and storms off in a rage
I’m picking the Jags
I’m picking the cat butt.
I do not believe the Chargers are much better than their record. I wouldn’t expect them to make the playoffs even as a wildcard.
My Redskins are worse than their record, and they’re likely to get their asses handed to them by the Raiders.
Yeah, the ‘skins rushed for 229 yards against the Rams, but then the 49ers had three rushing touchdowns against the Rams on Thursday. A rushing performance like that won’t happen against the Raiders. Meanwhile, the Redskins lost both Garcon and DeSean Jackson, and it shows. Against the Rams, the Redskins only threw for 179 yards, and a hundred of that was to TEs and RBs.
Our deep threats are still developing. We can’t afford to buy talent deep if we’re keeping Kirk Cousins, so it has to either be on the team already or come by way of the draft. WRs take three seasons to mature. We’re at best two years away from being contenders–just like we’ve been since 1991.
It’s funny. If the Redskins were a woman, I’d have broken up with her a long time ago. Is there anything else like that, where you stick with them no matter . . . ?
I’d say my dog, but dogs don’t really treat you bad. They’re just sometimes overcome by their enthusiasms. And you expect that, occasionally, from a dog. Got into the trash can again–well, what’d you expect? Ecclesiastes says “With much wisdom, comes much grief”. Ken Shultz says, “With high expectations, comes disappointment”. The Caps disappoint me every year because of that. The Redskins can’t disappoint me this year. I expect them to lick their own balls, shit on the floor, and eat their own barf.
HTTR
Real Men bet on sports (and beat their kids when they lose a bet), nerds play fantasy sports. How do the glibs split on this?
I sometimes bet on playoffs. imo betting without seeing a team play a whole season is just shooting in the dark.
i knew a (rich) kid in college who bet $10,000 a week on football games. this was in the early 1990s, so yes, very rich. he lost so much money the bookie had to send someone to ‘talk to’ his father, who was bankrolling the idiot. I decided that gambling of that sort was pretty dumb.
at my local bar in wburg, there were 2 british construction-worker guys who bet on all the football games every weekend. I mean ALL of them (college, pro, local high schools, etc). They’d sit and read the papers and bet the spreads. Maybe $20 per game. I don’t think they ever actually watched any of the games. I talked to them about it every now and then because it intrigued me. I was like, “wtf is the point if you don’t even enjoy watching the games”, and they were like, “well we watch the good ones. sometimes. if they happen to be on.” But the explanation seemed to be that this was just a way to make sports interesting, and was the same way their dads bet on sports. it was basically proper working-class punting. I’d seen some similar version of that at Annie Moores bar next to grand central (now relocated), but instead of working class immigrants, it was a bunch of wall st dudes who would drop a few hundred/thousand bucks on every game. the bartenders at that bar were running a huge book.
I don’t do either.
I dont gamble. If you want my money I want collateral at least equal in value to the money you want me to invest. Gambling is a kind of investment, an investment with an abysmal record of return. It is the very worst investment you can make. If I make an investment I want a guarantee of equal return. 100 fucking percent chance of return. I am greedy and evil like that.
*hands monocle to orphan to polish*
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8Z6qWRugCY
I was pretty heavy into fan duel a few years ago. Mainly because a couple of guys I worked with were into it and it made for good ribbing and just general honest fun. They were both way better at it than I was which was kind of embarrassing as I was the only American on the crew. I got beat almost every week by an Aussie and a Pom. American football fanatics those two dudes are.
How about one day fantasy sports, which is basically betting on your fantasy team? (Against God knows how many site-generated shill teams, but w/e.)
Gambling is the one vice I just don’t get. Never understood the appeal of it.
However, if you pointed a gun at my head and told me I had to gamble or play fantasy sports, I’d be on the next plane to Vegas. A local sports talk guy helped start that abomination so it might seem worse here than other places.
Prediction: they all lose
OT: Just looked at TOS for the first time in a while. Tony is going off on “How can you justify imposing Anarchy” if people don’t want it. He is both the stupidest and most insincere of the trolls over there. I mean what kind of intellectual laziness does it take to see that you can’t “Impose” anarchy (at least the anarcho-capitalist type), but “Other people not wanting it” is necessarily them trying to impose their will on you.
Tony is really just a useful idiot. He is dumb enough to rattle off talking points he was given and think that he had crushed your argument. He might even believe the shit he says and believes that he has good intentions which justify his bullshit.
Shreek, a different animal. He took the cake for mendacity. That is one seriously dishonest fucker. He is nothing but a petty, cowardly thug that wants your neck under a boot.
It’s hardly Tony’s fault that his mother was drinking AND doing crack when she got hit by that bus.
Tony’s whole schtick is that he thinks a university education made him brilliant and more intelligent than everyone around him, which basically causes him to never address or analyze his own position either through ignorance or dis-ingenuousness. It must be a good argument because he made it.
It was fun spoofing Tony in the comments section. Just imagine yourself as a pompous, over-educated ass with a poor grasp of logic, and fire away.
Tony is an employee of the site, IMHO. No, I don’t have proof, but it makes sense to me.
Shikha wears socks?
Hmmm.
All I know this season is that the Colts are so bad that they are underdogs at home…to Cleveland.
(sigh) that’s weapons-grade bad.
Oh well, TCU goes to Stillwater today at 3:30 Eastern to play Oklahoma State and…. hmmm, wait a minute.
Crap, this whole weekend is going to suck.
The TCU/OSU game will possibly be the best contest of the week.
Go Pokes!
I have not seen betting lines, so I’ll reprint the NFL ones here. Courtesy Vegas.com:
BAL at JAX BAL -3.5
CLE at IND CLE -1
PIT at CHI PIT -7.5
MIA at NYJ MIA -6
DEN at BUF DEN -3
HOU at NWE NWE -14
NO at CAR CAR -5.5
TAM at MIN TAM -2.5
ATL at DET ATL -3
NYG at PHI PHI -6
SEA at TEN TEN -2.5
KAN at LAC KAN -3
CIN at GNB GNB -8 (-7.5 to -8.5)
OAK at WAS OAK -3
DAL at ARI DAL -3.5
Of those, if we like the transitive property: BAL defeated CIN 20-0, JAX beat HOU 29-7, and HOU beat CIN 13-6. Therefore, shouldn’t JAX be at least favored at home?
Large spread on the CIN/GNB betting. Can’t decide whether the West coast teams not doing well flying east thing overrides my feeling that Oakland would win this by 2 TD on a neutral site. DET should be favored by more, though I think betters are remembering ATL taking apart GNB last week.
I’d take HOU (with the points, duh), just because NWE is astoundingly better than HOU, yet Bellichek seems to delight in screwing over betters and fantasy players.
JAX hasn’t driven the Mayflower truck overseas just yet, so they’re the home team in name only at Wembley.
I think that BAL, OAK, and PHI are the best bargains this week, though I’m always hesitant to get involved with division games.
My prediction: Ravens 81, Jax 3.
Late FG to make it respectable.
As a Cardinals fan since 1991, they aren’t any good. The defense will keep them in games but they’ll finish 8-8.
I am delighted the Chargers moved to LA. After fucking San Diego on two stadium deals, the local citizenry told the Spanos clan to to take a walk. Good riddance. As long as Spanos owns the team and Rivers is QB they will lose. It’s practically a mathematical equation at this point. Now LA can enjoy getting fleeced while the Chargers perpetually disappoint what few fans they have.
Over/ under on players taking a knee during the anthem: 37