It looks like Nate is going to get big and ugly. Putting this here for people to check in and/or let us know what you need overnight and into the morning. Stay safe, Glibs. Let us know if we can help.
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They said we’d have worse stormed if we left the Paris Agreement!
More seriously, though, stay safe, stay above water, and stay in touch.
What will it take to get you deplorable deniers to believe?
Alternate title for this story:
BOHICA
Same thing here as the other Xiricanes. You need help, advice, or such – post here in the comments.
I am here for “dealing with insurance” stuff.
I’d offer to look after people’s infrastructure a bit while they’re incommunicado, but ssh keys aren’t as lendable as house keys. Well, if there’s anything I can do to keep an eye on things let me know…
Dear Swiss,
Should I light my house on fire as it’s flooding?
The fire won’t dry out the building enough to keep it standing.
But it’s a handy workaround for not having flood insurance.
I suggest you put a propane cylinder on a cesium collar 3 feet above your floor. If it burns, it burns.
Only if you can blame the fire on the water – i.e. make sure your “Greek Lightning” is water/electrical related.
…
Did I say that out loud?!
“Water got into my store of calcium carbide, that I had stored in a very safe place, 3 ft away from a furnace pilot light”
Thankfully, Nate doesn’t have much more time to get bigger and uglier than it already is and is absolutely trucking, as compared to Harvey and Irma who decided to hang out a while. I
Still, There’s going to be parts of southeastern LA (east of N’Awlins), Mississippi and Alabama that are gonna get 11 foot storm surge on top of the wind.
Hope any glibs in the area are ok.
http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2017/10/mandatory_citywide_curfew_to_b.html
So curfew starts at 7pm tonight. How is this even legal, other than during a complete breakdown of civil society?
Good news is that the cops aren’t going out to enforce that
Really? Article says otherwise
I assume that’s code for “looting”.
More seriously, in fL, they just tell you “good luck and we’ll come get your body after the storm passes”
No hurricanes seriously hit me while I lived in Fla, but in Massachusetts it’s not uncommon to be told “We’ll arrest you if we see you trying to drive after 3 PM during this blizzard.”
That’s how it went here when they imposed a curfew post-Irma. They weren’t looking to arrest you, but if you tried anything you’d get the charge for disobeying the curfew on top of the other charges you were getting.
But that might’ve been because we didn’t get the worst side of the storm. In Monroe County I’m sure it was indeed “fuck it, you’re on your own, good luck if you decide to try and go somewhere”.
Ah, ok. Thanks.
The New Orleans PD is kind of famous for doing what they want in terms of enforcing curfews already. There’s a definite point at the end of Mardi Gras where you are expected to get out of the streets, and they sweep them arresting anyone they find still out without a good reason. That’s probably not _legal_ on their part, but what are you gonna do?
“I’m going to the hospital. To buy a bottle of Pepsi from the vending machine.”
Hi Son. You seem to have a bit of an… attitude problem. Let me correct that for you.
It was coming right at us! Sort of.
Escaped Tiger
Why is PETA sticking their nose into this? We already know they would rather the animals live a brutal and short life in the wild rather than a long, pampered life that includes doing tricks for humans. They have nothing to add.
They’re assholes. Also, there was a damn tiger running around in a residential area. Recipe for disaster waiting to happen. Attacked a dog, but that could just as well have been a little kid. In this case, I have to side with the fuzz, good shoot.
Yeah, much as I love cats, and think Tigers are about the best things ever… well, I know cats too. I’ve thought about what it would be like if my cats were even the size of a large dog- scary as hell when they want food in the morning, right? Tigers are amazing predators, so you can’t really let them run loose around children… if you can’t catch them you have to kill them. Sad!
Yeah, and house cats are domesticated. Tigers are wild apex predators. About the scariest fucking thing you could run into in the wild. Killing machines. This is not exactly what you want to see in your back yard.
Yeah- love Tigers to death, but not in my backyard.
Really weird shit, I got the flu and then a throat infection, so I started taking Amoxicillin. Big horse pill 1000s. I started feeling better less than 24 hours later, knocked the hell out of the sore throat. The weird part is that this morning I got an allergic reaction from it. I’ve been taking this stuff all my life, whenever I’ve gotten a throat infection. I never had any allergy to it. Turned my face and neck, patches on my chest and some on my arms and back, bright red and itchy. I stopped taking it, didn’t take any today and it’s cleared up but very little. I got up and my wife was like ‘omg, what is wrong with your face? And neck, and turn around here, what is that?’. So I noticed I felt sort of itchy and went to look in the mirror. Fuck. Good thing I’m almost over that shit anyway, I only have some congestion and muscle soreness left. Pretty much fucked my entire week.
Hives and rash are the most common allergic reaction, but it would have happened the first time you took it, not all of a sudden after years of taking it.
I don’t take Amoxicillin by itself anymore, it’s just not effective anymore because of resistance. It’s much more effective in the Augmentin combo.
I mean it has to be that, I’m not really allergic to anything and I didn’t take anything else. My wife said it was from putting her Baileys in my scotch blend, lol.
Wait, didn’t you stay moderately drunk last night through this morning?
I’m not sure that you’re supposed to do that with some antibiotics.
Well, you’re not sure, but I can put your mind at ease. I always drink when I have a bacterial infection. It just makes it more bearable. It won’t hurt you or turn your skin bright red and blotchy.
I’m currently taking Augmentin (since Monday) , but am only getting better incrementally. This is the first time I’ve taken that. Is that normal?
That’s about how it went for me when I was on it a couple of months ago. Took most of the 10 day course to beat down the infection fully.
These 1000 Amoxicillin will stomp the fuck out of the worst infections. But by the 3rd day you’ll be so saturated by the stuff that you’ll probably smell like moldy bread.
Maybe it’s a Tumor.
Are you sure it’s not a Tuma?
IT’S NOT A TUMAH!
Okay, just so long as you’re sure.
Amoxycillin does that to me too. It’s always fun when the doctor pulls my records and frowns because I “react poorly to amoxycillin”.
“Doc, if that’s what you’re gonna prescribe because it’ll kill the bugs, prescribe away. Itchy skin and blotchy skin won’t kill me”
Generation 1 antibiotics were always prescribed along with instructions that you shouldn’t drink alcohol, certainly with stuff like Flagyl, Cefotam and Bactrim. As far as I know, the more modern ones like Zithromax don’t interact.
You can drink all you want with antibiotics. I promise you won’t die. The bug you have may go away faster.
We are directly across the lake from New Orleans. Weather is calm at the moment but concerned about the power going out. I updated my camping stove supplies and we bought some canned and instant stuff to live on if power does go out. I’m dreading not being able to get a decent cappuccino though.
Which forecast model are you guys using?
The options on Windyty are GFS, NAM, and ECMWF.
The three models that really matter are the GFS (American), ECMWF (European) and UKMET (United Kingdom). Bunch more, but those are the three that the NHC trusts the most.
Another site to check out is http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current, which gets you line plots of everything except the ECMWF, plus the SHIPS text model (which is what the NHC usually uses for intensity, including the rapid development index.
(Or you could be insane like me and pay $25 a month for WeatherBell and get everything you could ever imagine)
But what about the Weather channel? They talk a lot, that must be important. I mean they sound like experts.
I am fortunate enough to be far enough inland that this storm wont do anything except give us some badly needed rain. I am also fortunate enough to have enough elevation that I dont have to worry about flooding.
I hope everyone fares as well as I expect to.
Hey Suthen, how highly would you rate a visit to Nawlins? My SIL and his wife are coming to Murika in December and I have to take them somewhere. Well, I don’t have to, I want to. And I told them it needs to be deep south or west coast so we don’t freeze our asses off or get stuck in bad weather. I’ve been talking to them about Charleston (closest to us for winter time visit), Nawlins, TX Dallas or San Antonio, or somewhere in Cali.
I lived in New Orleans for many years. The best time to go by far is when the weather is cool, such as in late October to Spring. The food is overrated in many respects, but there are some great places to eat. By far the coolest thing about NOLA is the architecture and city layout. You can wander past the quarter into the Marigny and then back uptown and see little bars, restaurants, buildings and streets that will be interesting. I lived in Dallas and can say that New Orleans is far cooler place to visit if you’ve never been.
Second New Orleans in December. I’ve been then and in October and both are really nice but there’s something nice about walking through the Garden District with plants in bloom when it’s cold, dark, and miserable back home.
A JB explainer on hurricane models:
Most models that the National Hurricane Center uses are what’s called “late cycle” models. For example, when the National Hurricane Center puts out a 5 PM (Eastern) forecast, they’re using models that were based on the data from 1200Z (National Hurricane Center uses zulu time for everything it does, since it has responsibility for such a wide area (everywhere from the African Coast to the Pacific Ocean west of 140 degrees longitude). The exception to this is the SHIPS model, which is described below.
GFS: The GFS is the Global Forecast System, and is run by the National Weather Service. The GFS gives 15-day modeling for both surface and upper-level conditions and is considered to be one of the more reliable models, at least for track, after heavy tweaking due to it missing badly on Sandy in 2012. This model is run every 6 hours, at 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, and 18Z
GEFS: The Global Ensemble Forecast System. The GFS runs 20 additional models for surface low pressure systems, each with its own biases and strengths and weaknesses. They’re combined to show a smoothed out “average” of the 20 model runs, known as the AEMN. This is also run at 6 hour intervals.
ECMWF: The European Centre for Mid-Range Weather Forecasts. Along with the GFS, this is what the NHC trusts the most in forecasting storms. The ECMWF gives 10-day modeling for both surface and upper-level conditions. This is also the model that takes the longest to become available (the 12Z model is usually not fully available until close to 1900Z). This model is run twice a day, at 00Z and 12Z.
EEMN, or the European Ensemble Model Mean. Like the GFS ensemble, but it runs 50 models and smooths them out into an average. Run every 12 hours at the same times as the ECMWF.
UKMET: The United Kingdom Meteorological Office model. Run twice a day and produces 5 day forecasts. Becomes especially important when a storm is, well, close.
CMC: Canadian Met Office. Just like the European, forecasts every 12 hours, 10 days of forecasting. The Canadian Met Office also runs (20) ensemble runs.
HWRF: Hurricane Weather and Research Forecast System. Also run by the National Weather Service. It’s a fairly new model that’s been running for a few years and replaced the old GFDL model. A specific hurricane model that shows position, pressure, wind speed, and is able to generate what’s more or less a forecast of the surface radar of a storm. Runs out to 5 days.
There’s also the HCCA model, which takes all of the above (and sometimes a few more), corrects for known biases (for example, the GFS has been a little too far east in its forecasts this year and the ECMWF has been a little too far west) and smooths them all out into a consensus.
The NHC will sometimes refer to other models, but 99% of the time when the forecast discussion refers to a model it’s one of those. The Japanese Met Office, for example, runs a model similar to the other global models, but it’s usually ignored. The NAM (run by the US Navy) is sometimes seen but it’s not generally seen as a trustworthy model when it comes to hurricanes.
Intensity is all of the above plus the SHIPS (Statistical Hurricane Intensity Projection Scheme) and LGEM (Logistic Growth Equation Model). These are “early cycle” models; the model run valid at 1200Z is going to be available shortly after 1200Z. Takes into account ocean heat content and temperature, wind shear and the like in the projected path, and comes out with a resulting intensity prediction. The SHIPS model actually ignores land interaction, so a parallel model, known as the SHIPS Decay Model (DSHP) is run as well to take that into account.
The NHC is pretty good at projecting path nowadays. They’re far less good at projecting intensity.
Here’s an example of what the SHIPS model looks like. This is the run from a few days before Irma’s landfall in Florida, when it was an 185 MPH hurricane.
https://verif.rap.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2017/al112017/stext/17090600AL1117_ships.txt
I think I’d need a bit of help to find those numbers very useful. Or at least more work than I’m interested in putting in at the moment.
It’s technical shit. I’ve been weather-obsessed since I was a kid so I gobble this stuff up.
What I do for a living is write software that interprets numbers like these and tries to make sense of them. It is very difficult to do so, tbh.
right…
Thank you.
This is something that I’m very interested in.
I hope it won’t end up a time sink.