OK, no kidding around. NO OT LINKS or material. This is going to stay up and be the spot where our hurricane area Glibs can post their status, requests for help, offers of aid and the like. I will delete OT material and refer you to SP for the appropriate cyber ass kicking.
If you are in the storm path – leave. Your stuff is replaceable. You are not.
UPDATE: If you have insurance questions, I can probably help at least get you on track. My email is in the comments.
Comments
290 responses to “Hurricane Clearinghouse II”
Were scheduled to fly out this afternoon. I am hoping it continues to shift left because the current track will destroy everything we own in florida. I am so angry at the bullshit weather services that swore up and down it was going to hit the east coast of Florida which actually caused us to move our material into the path of the storm. I am livid right now.
I would document everything you can, and even see if you can wayback machine the weather track/predictions. Insurance company will probably want to know why the covered property was where it was.
Good catch – it’s probably possible to pull previous dated NOAA reports from the archives to trace the changes in bearing for documentation.
Insurance! HAH! Good one swiss! You crack me up.
The vehicle(s) have to have it, right? Maybe not the boat and jet ski stuff.
The boats and motorcycle definitely dont. The car probably only has liability, but its not worth very much to begin with. If they were insured we wouldn’t have spent thousands of dollars trying to save them.
Got it. Still, check the homeowners for personal property coverage for the non car and motorcycle. Probably not, but it can’t hurt to look. I speak insurance and lawyer – so if you need any help with that… swissservator AT gmail.com
Yeah….. house insurance…. don’t have that either.
Uh oh.
well still let us know if it goes sideways on you.
Its already going sideways, I’ll let you know if it straightens out.
When is your flight? Orlando (MCO), right? Southwest looks like they’re cancelling every thing after 5pm and everything except a slipped Baltimore flight and a flight to Dallas after 4pm. Can you get to the airport sooner?
If it were me, I would not wait to leave. Plane goes mechanical, etc, and then you’re stuck. I’m sure they’ve got a weather waiver in place to make changes at this point. I’m not a Southwest flyer but it looks like there’s availability on flights. If not, have the counter/gate agent put you on the standby list.
Tampa
Ahh, good. Southwest doesn’t seem to have many (or possibly any) cancellations from Tampa right now, including tomorrow morning. Hopefully that means they’re halfway confident of running everything and not just waiting until the last minute to pull the plug.
Good luck Vhyrus!
The flight is when the flight is. If it’s cancelled we have a backup plan but I’ll cross that bridge when I get to it.
Hurricane forecasting is still a very, very inexact science. And it’s only gotten marginally better (the average error at 3 days is about equal to what the average error at 2 days was a decade ago).
Google Crisis Map
Use the layers for shelter info.
Excellent – thanks, Tundra!
Air BnB has set up a free service. To match refugees with host families. Dirty capitalists…
https://www.airbnb.com/welcome/evacuees/hurricaneirmaevacuees
miama fire dispatch
not too helpful, but could give some insight.
Traffic cams in the keys.
These give snapshot images of US 1 along the keys. Right now it is the best real time hurricane status I can find.
https://keysnews.com/traffic-cams/
Thanks. Heavy stuff will hit 2AM.
You can already see standing water on the roads at mm 74 and 48.
After 27 hours on the road, we are safely in Atlanta. We left the Fr. Lauderdale area Thursday at 4 am, expecting a 9 hour jaunt. Traffic trapped us up around Jupiter and we averaged maybe 25 mph most of the rest of the way. Pulled off 4 times for gas, but only found it twice. The two successful times, I followed a fuel truck and waited while he delivered his load.
Just in case you were interested, I can report that driving for over 24 hours on less than two hours sleep is not fun. Nor is it all that smart. Others seemed to agree. People were stopping all along the interstate to rest or pee. The cell system was sometimes overwhelmed because of the huge numbers. I had a call cross over with someone else’s call before disconnecting, something I haven’t seen in decades.
But the kids were great, the pets did fine and all 3 adults, 3 kids, two cats, a dog and a lizard made the trip unscathed. Now for the waiting. I have two huge trees to the east of my house. It looks like we are going to get 12 hours of hurricane and tropical storm winds blowing east to west. Dang…. So if. Those trees go, my house will be there to cushion the fall.
I hope everyone else left early and has a safe place to stay. I will be praying for you, and for all the relatives and friends who are hosting you for the storm. Best case, it looks like I will be here for a week. We are heading to the braves game tomorrow…. Free to Florida residents. Look for me on TV. I will be the guy who looks like a zombie…
The fucked up part is Lauderdale looks safe now. I wish I had left the vehicles in Lauderdale.
Stop second-guessing yourself, V. You operated based on the info you had at the time.
Yes Vhyrus, seriously. Weather prediction is inaccurate, but you had to do something, and you did it.
My mom is also in the FtL area (Del Ray Beach) and has stayed behind. I finally got through to her by phone a few minutes ago. She says, “I just don’t know what all this fuss is about. Arlene and I just want to go get some chicken and everybody is closed.”
So apparently the shit hasn’t hit there yet… we’ll see what happens in the next twelve hours or so.
Right now Lauderdale is looking like the safest place in the whole state.
Around here hail damage is a regular thing, so whenever there was a nasty storm with lots of hail predicted I would go park my car under a nearby tree. It was a pretty big tree, and it protected my car from any serious hail damage for about five years, so parking my car under that tree seemed like the smart thing to do in any sort of serious storm situation. That was the right choice 99 times out of a 100. On the hundredth time, the wind knocked over the the tree, it landed on my car, and caused about $2000 worth of damage.
I was working off an assumption right up until the point it got proven wrong. We all do that. You were working on the best info you had at the time. You really shouldn’t try to second guess yourself.
glad you made it north.
I used to live in Peachtree City.
Glad you made it out safe.
Cyto I assume you got a place to stay in Atlanta. I’m in town so let me know if there is anything I can do
Same goes for anyone else who is up this way
The people in Atlanta have been incredibly nice. We have a dozen offers of places to stay and barbeque dinners from friends. And even acquaintances like Roger Wilco.
But even strangers are going out of their way to be generous. Yesterday the people at steak and shake on Barrett Parkway bought our meal. They did it in that classic southern way…. As my wife went to pay, the lady running the register just said “oh, don’t you worry about that, honey.” So my wife was confused. And says “I didn’t pay for my food yet”. And the lady says ” don’t you worry about that… Have a nice day.”. So sweet and no tooting their own horn. I miss living in the south.
Welcome to ATL. Besides the Braves game, Georgia Tech is letting Irma evacuees in for free and I think I heard something about Atlanta Motor Speedway opening the grandstands for some race this weekend for free for evacuees as well. Best of luck.
Nice! Glad you made it.
Reading about looters in Houston, and now BVI and St. Marten. Is anyone sticking around to guard their shit from thieves?
If you hunker down, don’t forget the Zello app.
I found out last night that my sister’s friend lives in key west with her parents. The parents live in a mansion and are going to ride out the storm in order to protect their house. The worst part is they wouldn’t let their children leave either. They’re on key west right now.
That’s stupid. How do they think they’ll go about protecting it?
I cant imagine that I would be close enough to be of any use to anyone but the offer is open.
Besides, the storm could end up heading this way. Offer is still open.
same here. if it heads for LA, NW arkansas is open to you.
Thank you sir.
Max sustained wind down from 185 to 130.
Heading to the tampa airport right now. Weather is beautiful. Sunny, some clouds, light breeze. Can’t believe we are 24 hours from landfall.
Best wishes to everyone affected by the hurricanes.
I’m sure it’s partly because of the absence of trolls–more so than the more honest stories, writers, etc.–but perhaps the biggest difference between this place and that other place where we used to go is that over here, for whatever reason, the commenters we interact with have come to seem more like real people.
In real life, real people disagree with each other and still like each other and even care about each other. I don’t suppose that’s by accident over here either. Isn’t one of the reasons this place came to be because the powers that be over in the other place took a rather insensitive, form letter posture on a story that impacted one of our own’s family members?
Anyway, yeah, y’all in the hurricane area, please take care.
Heads up: https://twitter.com/FLGovScott/status/906172777576579072
The Cajun Navy has expressed an interest in going into Florida if need be. I don’t know much about them, but for those who think their services may be helpful here is their donation page:
http://cajunrelief.org/donate/
I don’t expect a lot of long term flooding in fl that would warrant their services but if they wanna stage some people at the border that’s fine by me.
Thanks for the link. A proper place for this libertarian to donate.
I’m just south of metro Nashville, TN and have an apartment and a couple spare bedrooms in my house if anyone needs a place. Full bath, laundry, kitchen. Lemme know. Safe travels.
brethaas@gmail.com
I am pretty far away from the FL Glibs, but if anyone needs a place I have a spare room up here in Myrtle Beach.
Also, I am happy to assist with any post storm legal matters ya’ll may have.
I am located in N. Tampa, but in a fairly safe area – one of the highest points in Hillsborough county, and our house is concrete block on a slab. I’m not too worried about the storm. May lose a window or two and shingles off the roof (would be nice to have both of those replaced by insurance!), but that’s the biggest of my fears.
If any Tampa area Glibs (or friends of Glibs) needs a place to crash, my place is available. Goes for you too Vhyrus – if for some reason the plane doesn’t work out, we aren’t far from the airport. You can email me at shedendblue (at) gmail (dot) com.
Stay safe all!
May lose a window or two and shingles off the roof (would be nice to have both of those replaced by insurance!),
*Pictures IHTP casually strolling around house after hurricane, busting windows*
I am in northwest Hillsborough County in Citrus Park. New windows are nice but I can buy a lot with my hurricane deductible of $6,500; I am a lot more worried about what is inside the windows and under the roof, starting with the family. I have USAA so at least I will be able to get my claims processed.
I agree completely with everything (love my USAA). I’m actually not concerned the least with the structural integrity of my house – when we bought it the inspector basically said that it was solid as a rock. Even with a roof that is old and in need of replacement, the strength of the way it was made was enough to get us a discount on our insurance.
I really don’t wish that we lose any windows or the roof, but as long as the wife and the dogs make it through unscathed, I’ll be just fine with anything else that happens.
You still feeling pretty chill about this? Your attitude about the storm while being in my neighborhood is one of the only reasons I’m not completely freaked out.
It’s going to be fine. Scary and boring and scary again. But fine.
That’s good to hear. We’re definitely expecting the worst so hopefully this will turn out to be a pleasant surprise.
I tried a negroni the other night. Campari is not to my taste.
My wife hates them. She says they taste like medicine. I love bitter flavors though so Negroni’s are one of my favorite cocktails (obviously), but I actually prefer them made with rye whiskey as a Boulevardier instead. The happy medium for me is St. George dry rye gin.
More a Terroir fan myself. It’s like drinking a hike in the mountains around my hometown.
@jesse thanks for the heads up about Terroir. Will be buying some this afternoon. In fact, will be buying alot of St. George product today. It all sounds delicious.
I found out recently that St. George has rum. At some point I will acquire some and have someone over to see how handsy I get.
The first hurricane after moving to Florida is scary as hell because it is so different from any storm you’ve ever experienced but you will be fine.
Thanks SJC. The biggest thing freaking us out is actually having everyone we know in the entire world constantly calling us and freaking out. Seems like all the Florida folks are pretty meh about everything while everyone else is convinced we’re gonna die.
We’re as prepped as we can be though so it’s time to just chill until the shit hits.
Finished getting the shudders up and getting the generator ready. Well, I supervised. Anyway, good luck to all of you. Be safe.
Shudders? That was a somewhat appropriate typo.
Yup, still pretty chill about it. I’ve been through about half a dozen hurricanes, and while they are a wild ride, I’m not actually the least bit afraid of them. Tornados scare the piss out of me, but where the predicted path is currently heading we shouldn’t have to worry about those. Biggest threat to life from hurricanes comes from flooding and falling trees. Where we are we don’t have to worry about flooding, and we plan to hunker down in a part of the house where no falling tree could reach.
Our preparations have entailed putting a tarp over part of the roof that was already leaking and filling up the freezer with a bunch of bottles/buckets/various other containers to make as much ice as possible.
We have a 25,000 gallon pool and a very good filter for water. We have a couple tanks of propane for the grill. We have enough food to last us about a month eating like normal, 2 if we stretch it. Enough alcohol to keep me happy even if the air conditioning goes out.
Where in Carrollwood are you located?
Ehrlich and Dale Mabry area. We do have some big ass trees around here, but the house is concrete block and pretty damn solid. Nothing much we can do about it anyway.
Not far at all from me. I’m just off Fletcher and Armenia.
You will see those big trees come down in a lot of places. But you also have to think that a lot of those big trees are live oaks that have been there for hundreds of years and have probably seen a lot of storms like this. Storm is going to be loud and violent, and the fact that it is hitting overnight doesn’t help. Just be prepared for a few days/week of misery when the power is out and there is no AC…
After this thing has passed, we should meet up for dinner sometime. There’s a great dive bar/restaurant/music venue not far away with a really good blackened grouper reuben sandwich not far from here…
Sounds good to me. I’ve only been to one restaurant since I mistakenly moved to Tampa. 4 Rivers Smokehouse. It was pretty good.
I haven’t been to 4 Rivers, but if you like barbecue you should check out Holy Hog. It’s about 3/4 of a mile down Dale Mabry past Fletcher. We go there every other Thursday for their trivia night. They have pretty good pulled pork, but I can’t comment on their brisket (I wouldn’t know what a good brisket should taste like). They also make a BBQban sandwich (cuban sandwich with their smoked pork) that is absolutely incredible…
“Where in Carrollwood are you located?”
Probably familiar to both of you already, but projected storm surge maps for Tampa area from a Cat 4. Both high tide and regular. https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/surge_images.asp
Top images there should be a SLOSH model for the Tampa Bay/Sarasota area. From those, it looks to me that Carrollwood shouldn’t be within the surge zone. But it’ll be close.
Best wishes and prayers for all of you.
Campari is pretty irreplaceable. The substitutes from Luxardo and others don’t cut it. Haven’t tried it with rye yet, but I will the next time I pick up some rye. LIked Bullett’s quite a bit, better than Rittenhouse, which was surprising to me. Need to try Whistlepig, or some of the High Western offerings.
Prayers for safety for all.
This is the best place on the internet. And I want everyone to stay safe and healthy.
God Bless you all.
Thanks for the prayers. So far just normal rain in Orlando. I think we will be fine. I’ll update after the storm.
I have a bunch of family in suburban Orlando – my mom, and my sister and her family. Unfortunately one niece and her family are over in Tampa and weren’t able to get out. So feeling a touch nervous about them.
If we get by clean, I probably can run some supplies into the Tampa area if anyone needs them.
When are the parts of Florida that don’t get hit hard going to get restocked with supplies?
Hopefully Tuesday in Orlando. The hospital is on emergency cases only through Monday. Tuesday is back to normal operations. i have a pickup, so I can bring enough stuff to get people by for a while if I can buy supplies.
Just stay safe. Property is replaceable. Life and limb, not so much.
By the way, I hope everyone is doing alright in the Houston area, thats got to be a real mess right now.
God bless and take care all you Glibs in the Danger zone, and Vyrhus, don’t waste time, take off ASAP
Im not actually flying the plane, you know. I don’t control when it leaves.
as in, get an earlier flight 🙂
Thank you for the well wishes. Other than the Corps of Engineers’ flood zone (East of the dams, south of 10, north of Memorial), things seem to be getting back to normal.
For the Houstonians here, NOAA send a plane to take photos during the brunt of the flooding. Those photos can be found here: and are sobering. https://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/harvey/index.html
Some room options: I’m offering 200 free rooms-BUDGETEL INNS, exit 1:I-75 north in Chattanooga-Florida residents ONLY-please share
But it sounds like most of our folks are already set up pretty well.
That’s awesome of them. I’m headed to Chattanooga in a week.
Final update: I am now on a plane out of Tampa. 3 hours from now I’ll be in Chicago, and then 3 hours later I’ll land in phoenix. The mission is officially over, but in light of the newest storm predictions I cannot call it a success. The fact that my time and effort may very well have been completely wasted and that we are probably going to lose all of our regional assets leaves me absolutely crushed to the point of tears. I hope I am wrong but I am genuinely fearing the worst.
If for some reason you get stuck in Chicago, Vhyrus, let us know. We don’t have luxurious accommodations, but could figure something out.
SP and OMWC will likely feed you as well. What their cuisine lacks in meat they more than make up for in bourbon.
This sounds like only a mildly acceptable trade-off.
It works provided I’m not asked to make puffy flatbread (which I failed at).
You did the best you could and got safely out. My thoughts will be with all of you FL Glibs.
You’re safe. That is what is most important.
Thanks for the updates.
Life is cruel, sometimes. But you’re alve
Nice! Sorry we missed a chance to meet up. Glad it all “worked out”
This wasn’t a vacation as much as an evacuation. If I’m ever back in Florida I’ll look you up. I appreciate the offers for help.
I wrote something longer in the, IIRC, Morning links, but basically, you did very well. Go look at the surge map upthread here, and see if your storage unit site is within the danger area. If not, or hell, even if it is, it’s still better than sitting in the eyewall of a hurricane. Which is where your Key is slated to be about two days from now. Had you not moved your things, they would be gone. FIsh food.
You did the best you could, with the best knowledge you had at the time. It wasn’t a waste at all.
Besides, you might be surprised. I would have bet a lot of money that my storage unit, adjacent pretty much to one of the two dams in Houston causing controversy, would have washed away. Drove up to it, and no water intrusion at all.
You just don’t know until it happens. It might still work out for you, and it looks like it definitely wouldn’t have worked out if you had left those things in the Keys.
My sister is sticking it out in Bradenton. Hopefully that is not a mistake.
My best friend is an RN and paramedic in Ft Lauderdale area. She is obviously staying and working. Her husband took their young child and headed north yesterday morning. Took them 13 hours to get to Orlando. Haven’t gotten a recent update, which is worrisome. The only good part is that my friend is located close to where OMWC’s Mom is, and has promised to check on her.
For those not familiar with the area, that is about a 3 1\2 hour drive. And there are no exits for a major chunk of the drive.
Best friend’s family are now near Talladega. Which is good. They are camping in a tent, which is not so good.
If you need someone to check in on OMWC’s mom, send me an email. I might not be able to do it before the storm hits, though.
Thanks, BP. I’ve been talking with her by cell phone and it seems to be OK so far. Power is out, but they have electric lanterns.
It looks like I’m getting incredibly lucky here. On the current track, the forecast is for 45-60 MPH winds with gusts to 75-80, and about a foot of rain. Been squally off and on all day, each one progressively getting a little bit heavier rain and a little bit windier. But looks like we’re going to be ok.
Good luck, Vhyrus, and anyone else dealing with this in the Keys or the Florida Gulf Coast.
I am a little concerned that brett hasn’t checked in today. Hopefully he’s busy preparing.
Brett has checked in off board. He has finished hitching his double wide to a yoke of pythons and gators and will be moving his whole family out of harms way.
Slanderous lies. I was bust convincing my parents to stay with us and throwing one of those semi-permanent canopies in the pool. Which was kind of gratifying. My wife took my mom to retrieve her phone and then we are locking the gates and trying to see if we can eat 3 weeks worth of food in six days.
I thought meth depressed the appetite. You might be Floridaing wrong.
It’s actually just a sleeve of crackers and a half empty bottle of ketchup.
Magic Kingdom is selling all the food at a discount to clear the stores in case they lose power. Unfortunately I had a big breakfast and had to pass on the 3 for 2 pastries.
Sounds like the Florida version of Little House on the Prairie.
Uh, so, if anyone gets blown several thousand kilometers north, you can sleep in my shed I guess? You won’t freeze to death, it’s not cold enough at nights for that yet.
*kicks pebble*
Any decent charities set up yet for American damage?
At least you aren’t actively making fun of us.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/hurricane-irma-gun-owners-florida-shoot-down-storm-a7937546.html?amp
Is the author of the article serious that she thinks the author of the post is serious, or is this all just a giant ball of sarcasm?
Journalos: walking the knife edge of incompetence and malice.
And what is this kill o meters shit? You can’t kill meters. Or is this some sick way of counting hurricane victims? You’re a sick fuck jt.
Kilo, from the Greek Kilossophalta, meaning “your measurement system is dumb Americans”.
At least your military’s figured out the proper system.
Why would I want a system based on the average height of kindergarteners rather than something I can easily walk out?
Also, if base 12 is so dumb why aren’t you using the metric calendar?
Settle down.
God, it’s 23 Fructidor CCXXV everyone should be on metric, it’s just so logical.
Ermm, I think it’s called the “Imperial” measurement system — perhaps you could shed light on what that’s about?
You don’t want to go down that road, because it ends with “if we can change, so can you.”
Also, Jefferson wanted a metric system even before it existed. Obey your founding fathers.
He also wanted slaves. You know who else wanted slaves?
But enough about the loss of the Empire
Clock’s ticking on yours Yanks.
Nope. We’re making it great again. Didn’t you get the memo?
Uh huh.
Ditto anyone who winds up in Albuquerque for some bizarre reason. Flights redirected, I don’t know. But the family home is large and we have beds.
They announced a curfew starting at 4 PM here. 3 PM up in Palm Beach County. Not like I had anywhere to go anyways.
You’re going to drive around after 4 pm blaring fuck da police like a good glib right?
I’m only about a mile and a half from the main police station for the western part of the city as well!
Latest predictions on path and storm surge.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/hurricane-irma-to-batter-florida-with-catastrophic-storm-surge-wind-and-rain/70002657
Interesting video of abandoned cars in relatively high ground. Currently Cat 3, expected to intensify to Cat 4 by the time the eye reaches FL. This is no laughing matter, stay safe.
Hmm, might be a Cat4 still by central FL. Maybe I should have boarded the windows.
We saw that first hand in the keys. People parked their cars near the bridges because that is apparently the highest ground on the island.
Completely random, but something to keep an eye on.
This is the GFS on Jose in 10 days
And this is the Euro in 10 days.
I’m no expert, but looking at the radar, it doesn’t seem like Irma has made any dramatic moves North yet. Looks more like she’s heading west right between Cuba and Florida. About 4 days ago, of the dozens of models from different organizations, there were two that showed Irma slipping through that strait and making landfall on LA, TX, or Mississippi.
Could be good (well, better anyway; still gonna get wet) for Florida; could be good for everyone if Irma loses strength along the way. But it would be a total bitch if she landed in Houston.
All the models currently show it turning north, but the part of me that hates authority would definitely enjoy them all being wrong.
It’s stayed slightly further west than they expected because the ridge was a little stronger than expected.
But they know where the ridge is at this point, and it’s hitting the western edge, and it’s going to follow it northwest and then north. There’s a chance this could be a little further west than they think, but the likelihood is that its path is set. The models are all in agreement at this point (versus what it was 6 days ago, when there were models bringing it anywhere from Maine to Mexico)
I fucking hate science.
Oh, here you go with facts and knowledge and shit. Fine! I will just go back to my hut and burn some sage or read chicken guts.
But seriously, prayers for all you affected Glibs, wherever you are. Pull through all the hurricanes, wild fires, and the little things that we don’t know about.
Look on the Brightside. Fema is already there and it will take care of the clouds of mosquitoes
Yeah, FEMA doesn’t want competition from other parasites.
I saw this tweet about crazy people on the Breitbart live update link. I am not sure I would have stayed in key west even in my super dumb ass invincible days. There is a link for the southern most point cam in the tweet. I watched for a few minutes and more people rolled by for pics.
Glad to see all the Glibertariatoids in the path are prepped up. Good luck to all.
I have to say I have actually been impressed with the reaction to the storm here in Tampa. Seems like the storm has tamed the normal Florida Man levels of crazy. People have been polite, patient, and helpful. Everyone in our neighborhood has been checking in with all the neighbors, lending help when needed. Even the response by the police (other than the @#$% of a sheriff over in Polk County), politicians, and the local news has been measured, level-headed, and informative.
If only everyone would remember this 2 hours after the storm passes…
But then you wouldn’t get to shoot a looter….
I pity any looters that come into our neighborhood. Several current/former military, more CCW instructors than would be expected in a small neighborhood. And the only family that evacuated is one across the street from us that just moved here from Iowa.
My gun safe is strategically stocked. Front to back: First is the scoped rifle (for looters 300 meters away). Then the AR. Then the M1A (SOCOM model, and I haven’t zeroed the sights yet, so I don’t trust it over 100 meters or so). Then the shotgun. If they are still coming, it’s a .45 and an old Patton cavalry sword…
Here’s a good picture of Why it’s going north, winds aloft, Jet Stream,
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=25.9;-79.7;5&l=wind-200hpa&t=20170910/15
That is super cool. Bookmarking to screw around with when bored.
Winds look to be heading NE. Is that supposed to change in the next couple days, or might the forecast cone start to shift east?
That’s about all it can do looking at the Jet, it could even drag itself across central FL and emerge of the Atlantic coast, the winds North are sucking it in, as it were
Yeah, but that’s the predicted jet. Look at it right now. This thing is going to keep moving west.
The models are in incredibly good agreement right now, with no outliers. All of them take it over the Keys and then straight north either just inland or just offshore western Florida, through the Panhandle and into south Georgia, then the remnants bending northwest into Tennessee. Would be surprised to see any of that change. Maybe in the 72+ hour part of the forecast if it did.
My parents have a place in Naples. A second floor condo. Dad passed last year and Mom is back north for the summer. Glad we didn’t leave Dad’s car down there.
I might be down there in a few weeks if the place is trashed. I have a ton of vacation left and don’t want more on Mom’s plate. We’ll see how bad this is.
Good luck. Naples looks like it’s going to get hammered. Glad it’s only property and not people to worry about.
Latest Naples area storm surge projections, as of today, from NOAA: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/213811.shtml?inundation#contents
Zoomable map at their site, covers Florida. If it’s right, unfortunately, Naples is going to get hit hard.
The storm has hung around Cuba much longer than expected.
Possibly because socialism sucks so hard,
Trump is in control of all tropical storms now, he’s going to kill Raul just like he killed Fidel, and the others. The hurricane is going to take out a few Hillary voters in SW Florida, then make a startling reversal to the SE, all the way down around Cape Horn and then turning NE right at the Korean peninsula, gaining strength all the way. You should have went Trump, Houston. You thought you were funny, didn’t you, Kim?
Just wanted to say:
* glad that everyone so far seems to be safe and sound – please keep it up
* the generosity of heartless bastard libertarians is strangely moving but not surprising
* my orphans are sacrificing a goat to the Elder Ones for your safety
Wouldn’t sacrificing some of your orphans make more sense? Surely human sacrifice works better than animal.
Well I don’t care that much
Greetings from the three legged dog N.O.
The barkeeps say hello to “Clint” who they remember fondly
Tip someone at The Corner Pocket for me.
Curtis not clint
Property insurance expert here. If you have questions about coverage or need any pointers, meet me know. Just spent all day trying to hire adjusters to handle claims. Had a company turn down $4 million for the storm along with recurring daily business of over $2 million a year. Prepare to wait to get to claim handled.
My favorite aunt and uncle are going to get annihilated. They’re two hours south of Tampa and I have no idea if they evacuated. Uncle drives racecars now that he’s retired and they buy everything, including the house they ehad for decades, in cash, and it’s right on the water. Ugh.
Thanks for the advice the other day, we were luckily able to reschedule everything. I really do appreciate it.
Hope all of y’all stay safe and come through it ok.
Pretty interesting hurricane tracking site, that the Telegraph is using:
https://www.windy.com/?20.633,-64.688,4
Is that second circular image of purple, etc., lying southeast of Irma, Hurricane Jose?
Does anyone else find this pornographic?
https://img.washingtonpost.com/pbox.php?url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/files/2017/09/euro-winds-irma.gif&op=noop
Long-time readers of SugarFree have been primed to react to the sight of a gangrenous shaft that goes near and then sails past an angry red maw.
Heh.
Morning all. Still got power here. Looks like interesting times. A little music for Sunday morning.
Great news – keeping my fingers crossed. Just don’t go out in the rain
Still have power here as well. On the plus side, our neighborhood has underground utilities, even though it is an older neighborhood. I’m sure we will lose power at some point, but hopefully it will be a shorter outage for us when it inevitably comes – the above ground lines come straight over from Dale Mabry, so hopefully they will be on the earlier lists for getting reconnected.
I’m just ready for it to hit. The waiting is the hardest part…
Still have power. Wind is picking up. About time to shift to the downstairs for 18 hours of family time. Wheeee.
Lock yourself in a closet with a bottle of bourbon, your phone and a couple of battery packs.
I’m trying to figure out how to make it casual to grab the lotion
Good luck to anyone caught in Irma’s path wherever they may be.
If the radar is to be believed, the eye just passed between Key West and Marathon about 10 minutes ago.
It made landfall at cudjoe key according to fox news.
Cudjoe key is where my parents house is.
So moving your stuff WAS a good idea.
Yes, unfortunately I moved it back into the path of the hurricane so where along the path is a bit moot.
All’s well here. It’s game time soon. Godspeed everyone.
just cooked breakfast under the belief that any day that starts with ribeye and eggs can’t be all bad.
Nice!
That’s the spirit. Live well. Be safe and good luck to all FLA Glibs.
That’s a great philosophy to have! We had a hearty breakfast of eggs, sausage, and buttermilk biscuits. Just trying to clear out the fridge…
And I know this doesn’t have anything to do with the storm, but both my wife and I are extremely southern (me – Alabama, her – Baden-Württemberg), and we are of the opinion that people should be welcomed to a new area with food. Negroni – do you like cheesecake? My wife wanted to make you a key lime cheesecake to welcome you to Florida. Granted, it would be after the storm has passed and we have power again…
Anyone that doesn’t like cheesecake is not to be trusted and yes that certainly includes those shifty vegans. Once we finish playing Fallout: Tampa Edition, I’m down for an area glibs meetup/bender
I’m in Florida. Been too busy playing poker with the neighbors in my condo to post. My friends around the country and in Europe are more concerned than we are. The media is making much more of this that what I expect we’ll see.
Hope you’re right. I’m getting nervous for my sister who is in Bradenton. They are hanging at a friend’s house with hurricane windows and a fortified room which makes me feel a little better. They didn’t have time to board their windows. They’re on higher ground which hopefully will help with flooding. Stay Safe!
You can check their flood zone here:
https://www.mymanatee.org/portal/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=9ef2fa99445749ae80485dbfb1e03307
Thanks. Want able to see it but I found some Google Earth kmz files on Bradenton citt web page with flood zones and surge predictions.
I’m horrible with coding, so I can’t put in a link here, but the local news station just showed a web cam view of Tampa Bay near the Bayshore Blvd area. The water has been pushed out of the bay revealing sand. It’ll be frightening when it starts coming back in…
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/09/10/hurricane-irma-sucks-away-tampa-bay-water.html
They’re in West Bradenton only a few blocks from the Manitee River but they are Zone D so hopefully will be able to avoid flooding. I think one of the big concerns is trees falling into the house.
Greetings mammals, I have taken my hot rock, food bowl, and an excessive amount of beer 2 hours north of Tampa. Also I have found shelter in an inland area with hills.
Cling tightly little green friend.
Great job, Mr Lizard. Please be safe
Highest point in Florida is only 350 feet or so. Not sure I’d consider anything in this state as a “hill.” That’s actually one of the biggest reasons my wife and I are looking at moving out – we just can’t stand the lack of topography.
But in this situation, every foot counts. Glad you made it safely to shelter!
Thank you, and my normal domicile sits in view of one of your crude shipyards. Seeing ‘hills’ an not water around me is quite encouraging.
A couple who are dear friends of Mr & Mrs HE live in Bonita Springs (just north of Naples). Their last message on FB was 1 hour ago. Hoping for the best for them…
I think a lot of people stayed on the West when they expected the brunt to be borne by the East. This serves as a stark reminder that forecasts are only forecasts.
Naples is taking a direct hit in the next half hour.
Yeah, I am watching the radars, the Ventusky site, and FB for any updates.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/152748.shtml?cone#contents
looks like the winds are slowing down out there.
Yeah, it’s looking better for us here. Wind and rain are starting to pick up here a bit though, and lights have flickered a couple times in the last 10 minutes or so. I’m sure it is a matter of time before we lose power.
Also, for those in the Tampa Electric power area, they do have a good map of outages. Number of bubbles showing outage are starting to grow, and there are a number around our house here. Not sure how long we will have it…
Hopefully that thing has fizzled by the time it gets to you guys. From the coverage I am watching looks like some massive gustage but not roof ripping sustained since it got out of the keys.
I have been watching a stream of storm coverage for a bit. When did this, “Emergency services get shut down at a wind speed of 40 mph” start? Not to do a “back in my day!” but I have never heard anything like that before from first responders.
For at least 15 years. If they get the ambulance wrecked in high winds, it’s gone. Also, people who think the firemen will come when the storm surge floods will get people killed.
You are Naples Ft meyers ya? Or are you further north?
Ya, I get the not going out when it is too dangerous, 40 mph is not too dangerous was more my point. Going after people in the storm surge is a bit different and a bit of a timing thing. You don’t want to do it until it peaks I would think.
I’m assuming we’re going to lose comms with the Tampa Glibs soon.
Good luck and God bless.
Seconded.
Thirded. Here in the Orlando area, winds have definitely picked up, but the storm has been downgraded to a Cat 2.
The Power of the Mouse has been deployed?
One little mouse versus an entire hurricane. Sounds like one of their movies
Still here.
Same here. Power flickered a couple times, but is still holding out.
Y’all in Tampa? North of the airport, IIRC?
I’m NE of the airport. Carrollwood area…
My BiL and family evaced from down by the hospital. Too close to the water.
Yeah, that area floods during normal summer thunderstorms. I’m sure it will be bad tonight, even with the storm dissipating and heading farther east than anticipated. But I don’t think it will be catastrophic this time. We’re used to the routine flooding down here!
It’s nuts to see the bay dry.
*pours some out for TGH*
Sister just sent me this. Apparently, the Cantore has been deployed, and is In It.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/ulcbwkvpy5ujuaa/IMG_20170910_175252_01.jpg
If he was a real pro he would have gone to my parents place where it made first landfall as a cat 4.
Are you now in Phoenix?
Yeah Im totally safe. The house is probably gone though. It went straight through the eye of a cat 4.
Hope everyone is doing well!
So it looks like this storm is taking a Green Bay bounce
Power is out and looks like the eye is head towards us. Some looting of a sporting goods store, but otherwise quiet. Luckily have battery backup for alarm and internet.
We had a flicker up in Dunnellon but still partying strong
I’m a little drunk. I think that is the smart play during a natural disaster. StAy safe my cold blooded friend.
“Some looting of a sporting goods store, but otherwise quiet”
What storm? Typical Sunday!
SWAT has got them in a stand off. Hopefully they’ll surrender, because the sheriff said before the storm he’s not fucking around.
I am in Coral Springs, about 20 miles northwest of Ft Lauderdale. If any South Florida glibs need assistance, please reach out.
cmecham3 at gmail dot com
Baked Penguin, if you need any help after curfew, let me know. I have a 4×4 pickup.
Not to get all political, but are curfews constitutional? I mean, how can you tell me I can’t go outside? Fuck you, Rick Scott, I do what I want!
It’s so hot in my house after only 1 hour without power. How is that possible? Well, the Irish whiskey is cold, so I’ve got that going for me. I hope all the florida glibs are safe.
It looks like it’s tracking right for you. Good luck,
Thanks buddy, I’m optimistic.
Yeah, the models and the radar don’t jive. And you still have internet.
I have fiber optic Internet with battery backup, so I’ve got that going on. The wind gust are wild and the dogs are stir crazy. I’m sleeping in the guest room tonight because it’s the furestest from the oak trees. Im not too concerned.
Good night and good luck.
And FYI, the battery backup provided by your ISP is only for the “land line”. If you want internet in a blackout, you need your own battery backup.
If the oak trees come down, we’ll BBQ with the wood.
I hope all Glibs are safe, not just FL Glibs, you know what I mean.
And by that, I mean tracking slightly West of.
It’s midnight, so I’m off to bed. I’ll survey the damage in the morning. Good luck everyone.
So far the only damage is a dropped bottle of wine.
I’D RATHER A HOSPITAL BURNED!
We’re all good here. Big ass tree smashed into one corner of the house though. Wall is fine but the roof is fucked. No power but we still have water.
Hope everyone is safe. G’night all.
Good to hear. Anyone else up at this ungodly hour, feel free to pipe up.
Negroni, I got a big ass tarp in preparation for the storm I could bring over if you need it for the roof. I won’t be on here much today, but you could email me at shedendblue(at)gmail(dot)com if you’d like it. I think it is a 16×20.
We are safe and sound here. Lost power sometime in the night, but no apparent damage to the house. Lots of branches all around though.
Hope everyone is OK!
NBC says no deaths reported yet, also the governor of Georgia “closed the state government at least through Tuesday.”
On the negative side of the ledger, blackouts, property damage and some looting.
Panic ensued as people didn’t know what to do without their glorious benefactors.
Incredible, ain’t it? It was just a leisurely drive into ATL this morning; with no issues. I know it will be worse later, but geez, what a bunch of wimps. Two-thirds of my co-workers made up some excuses to stay home.
We got burned by the “oh it’ll be fine today lets just go into work” and then “OH SHIT ITS SNOWING GO HOME NOW” a few years ago. So, a lot of businesses decided to close today as well as city services (trash pickup, etc).
I remember it well. I started work early to get ahead of the tax cattle and parasites, but my boss guilted me into staying until the last minute. What a miserable 10 hours that was. At least I made it home. It only cost me $1,000 in front end damage too!
Hurricane photos from the Washington Post
http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/national/2017/09/10/hurricane-irma-photos-the-most-dramatic-images-each-day-from-the-storm/?tid=a_inl&utm_term=.a6cd47903a92
How’s everyone holding up?
SO overall I understand it was not as bad as it could have been? It was not cat 4 in major population center and it dropped to 1 when it got to Tampa right? Anyway good that everyone seems ok. Good luck with getting the power back, the though of Florida with no AC is uncomfortable to me.
It was cat 4 at “landfall”. Kinda. If you are willing to call Key West as land fall. It never had measurable surface winds that high around the time, though, so even that is debatable.
This does not mean it’s not serious, though. I always think it’s the water and storm surge that is the way worst part of it. I’d rather have high winds than a lot of water.
If my parent’s house on Cudjoe is still there, then we can say it wasn’t that bad. Hopefully I’ll know something by the end of the week.
Last week we were worried about my sister in West Palm Beach. She decided not to evacuate and kept telling us they didn’t know where it would hit. We thought she was nuts. Turns out she had the last laugh. She had some tree limbs down, but never lost power. House and car are fine too.
I don’t really understand why the want everyone to evacuate in these things.
You should evacuate if:
1) You are in the storm surge or potential flooding area.
2) You are along the coast.
3) You live in a mobile home or structurally unsound building.
Otherwise, you are just clogging the roads for people who actual need them.
Just a FYI to ‘git er done’ Florida Man glibs. DOIs in both Texas and Florida are asking for referrals on any houses without flood insurance that ‘caught fire’ during storms. They are looking to make examples of this type of fraud.
Man, that was a good meme.
apparently our govt’s (read: NWS) anemometers fail around 70MPH so there’s a fair amount of SWAGing to determine Irma’s classification through the whole ordeal.
and those cranes collapsing gave CNN about 8 extra hours of coverage.
An entire county is underwater but OH NOES TWO CRANES SORT OF KIND OF BROKE BUT NOTHING HIT THE GROUND BUT OH MAH GAWD IT COULD TOTALLY KILL EVERYONE!!
Irma (now tropical storm) is hitting Georgia and we’re getting lots of wind and rain up in Atlanta. I’ve been listening in on the public safety radio and they’re dealing with a lot of downed trees and power lines. Winds are too high for the power company bucket trucks to do anything about it right now.
From the irony department I fled to Atlanta, and now I am sitting in the dark in my sister’s house. Back home in Florida, the power never went out. I was able to watch streaming video from my home server the whole time. We lost a few branches and a fence, but that is about it.
My house is now the shelter for a bunch of our friends. AC and a hot shower is pretty sweet when you have been sitting in the dark for a day or two.
So. Webcams for showers then? 😀
No power and no cell service, makes me go crazy. Otherwise fine.
Sorry buddy. We got stupidly lucky. Power, wifi, cable, shitters, and no damage. Of course I also have a house full of refugee reptiles from the Keys so the interior will likely suffer from a growing pile of beer cans.
My refugees are leaving now to go back to Ft Lauderdale. They probably would have been better off there. At least cell service is back up.
Power just came back!
*dances manically*
Back when I was had my own well for water, I was looking very seriously at a Generac home generator – with your own well, no power also means no water. Pater Dean is looking at one as well (they get power outages at the Rancho Dean that can last from a few hours to a few days). A full “whole house” generator is probably around $10K or so installed, but you can hook a smaller one up that only powers the essentials – fridge, lights, etc. If you leave the AC off the generator, you can get by with a (much?) smaller one.
Here in Tucson, in nearly 5 years I think we’ve had a grand total of maybe 4 hours without power, so its not worth it here.
I came very close to pulling the trigger on a Generac earlier this year, but decided to wait a little longer.
I currently have the smaller set-up you described, except I added on an exterior outlet and installed an interloc in my box so no extension cords needed other than just one cord from the generator to the house. Total cost for everything was about $700. My gen runs on propane, but it will also run indefinitely on a natural gas line if you have access.
We have the smaller generator setup, although the water pump isn’t hooked up to the generator by default. Probably have to run it two or three times a year.
Florida Man – thx for your offer, but it wasn’t too bad. Lost power for 15 hours, lost a few shingles off the roof, not much else. Pretty much what I figured. No large trees near the house – I saw a few down when I went to check on a friend’s mom who lives a block down, violating the curfew like a good libertarian.
Checking in. Some minor damage and flooding around my place. Power came back on an hour ago.
Nice, glad you are clawing back to modern living
Fiat lux bitches. Power is back on. Once the property management pulls the tree off our roof we’re golden.
But hey I have AC and Netflix again. Life is good.
Now we just need to plan your initiation ceremony to the Disreputable Order of Florida Man. You’ve been blooded. No power at my place, but my folks have it.
Not only is my power still out, but the water’s out too. Apparently a lightning strike late in the storm at the water plant. And this side of the city’s still mostly without power. So we have near zero water pressure, a boil water order and can’t boil water.
The city Mayor and whoever is in charge of the water plant have asked FPL to make the area a priority because of it. I’m off to my mom’s house (different nearby city, but with power and water) for the night.
Still no power here, but it hasn’t been too bad just yet. We’ll see how it is tomorrow with higher temps and more sunshine. Building where my office is located is apparently still closed, so we have to telework tomorrow. No power, no internet, no telework. So unless everything comes back on overnight, I’ll spend tomorrow in my pool…
Seems like Glibs are coming through ok. Would like to hear from Carol and her mom if anybody has info please share.
I am making a late afternoon pass through the AM links and noticed that Carol checked in there and seems to be fine.
Ok, me and mine are fixin’ to head south from Atlanta on the return of the diaspora. Any reports on traffic and the availability of gas on I-75 and the turnpike?
Still no power in Atlanta, so it will be a stinky return.
Finally got power back!