Author: F. Stupidity Jr.

And then there were two. Unbeatens, that it – the Kansas City Chiefs and the Atlanta Falcons. The Chiefs have really looked the part, winning their three games by 12 points per game. The Falcons look a little bit lucky, beating the Bears and Lions by a combined seven points. Granted, they looked more like their first-half-of-Super-Bowl-51 selves at home against the Packers in week two. (Is it weird that their first three opponents have all been from the NFC Central? That’s weird, right?)

Surprises thus far? Well, we’ve only had three games (Thursday night’s game notwithstanding), so it’s had to get a hold on things yet. But it’s hard to believe the Bengals are quite this bad, or that the Giants would be winless through three games. Individually, Alex Smith leading in Passer Rating would have to be a bit of a surprise. Yes, he’s always been a solid QB, but he has really shined in 2017.

Let’s see what’s on tap for Week 4:

AFC WEST

Washington @ Kansas City

Oakland @ Denver

Philadelphia @ LA Chargers

Good matchups this week. The Redskins are solid, but I don’t see them going into Arrowhead and winning. (By the way, while I’d prefer to avoid politics in football given the events of last week, shouldn’t the left be all over this game? Redskins versus Chiefs? UGH, problematic, they can’t even) The Chargers should get off the schneid at home, while Oakland picks up the in-division road win.

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore

Cincinnati @ Cleveland

Both games are divisional clashes this week. Ehhhhhxcellent. Besides the usual emotion that marks a Ravens-Steelers game, both teams are coming off of bad losses – the Ravens got hammered by the possibly-for-real Jaguars, while for the Steelers, losing to the Bears by any margin is an embarrassment. I’m not simply sucking up to Glibs management here; I like the Ravens at home. And Cleveland gets into the win column at the expense of the rapidly decaying Bengals.

AFC SOUTH

Jacksonville @ NY Jets

Indianapolis @ Seattle

Tennessee @ Houston

One big game and two very little ones. Let’s start with the big one down in Houston: since getting thoroughly outplayed in week one, the Houston Texans have been competitive in a win over Cincy and a loss to New England. Maybe it’s nothing more than the team getting refocused after getting thumped; on the other hand, maybe it’s just that neither the Bengals and Patriots are now lesser versions of them selves, and Houston would have lost to last year’s Bengals and blown out by last year’s Patriots. I think DeShawn Watson is going to use this season as a great learning experience for the future, but it won’t mean many wins now – particularly against the improved Titans. Seattle will take care of the Colts at home, and the Jags will go into New Jersey and defeat the New York Jets. (At least they’re not doing that Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim-type name scheme)

AFC EAST

New Orleans @ Miami

Buffalo @ Atlanta

Carolina @ New England

Jacksonville @ NY Jets

This division lacks even more luster than usual. Out of sixteen AFC teams ranked by pro-football-reference.com’s SRS (Simple Rating System) AFC East teams occupy spots 6,7,8, and 10. I’m skeptical that the Patriots are going to repeat as Super Bowl champions, but I’ll go way out on a limb and say that they’re going to be one of the top-three ranked AFC teams when January rolls around. Furthermore, they’re going to be the latest team to remind the Panthers that 2015 was nothing more than lightning in a bottle. The Bills will come up short in Atlanta, and the Saints will win in Miami.

NFC WEST

San Francisco @ Arizona

Indianapolis @ Seattle

LA Rams @ Dallas

How has Carson Palmer not simply exploded at this point? He’ll be 38 at the end of the year, he’s blown up his knee twice, played through an elbow issue that had one doctor recommending Tommy John surgery for…and he’s throwing a league-leading 44 passes per game this season. If Palmer faces one more team with a top-notch pass rush, he may need to be helped off the field by the cleanup crew. Fortunately for Palmer, the 49ers have three sacks total through three games, which is four fewer than the Cowboys’ Demarcus Lawrence. Take Arizona in that one. Speaking of the Cowboys, they’re going to have a surprisingly tough time against the offensive-minded Rams, but will pull it out at home.

NFC NORTH

Chicago 14 @ Green Bay 35 (F – 9/28)

Detroit @ Minnesota

You guys aren’t going to believe this…Sam Bradford is going to miss this game due to injury. I know, I know…I’m stunned too. Lions win on the road.

Let me get a little racist here: generally speaking, white wideouts tend to be either the smallish guys who find seams in the zone (Steve Largent, Wes Welker, Julian Edelman) or extremely fast guys you send deep on fly routes (Don Beebe, Tim Dwight). The bigger white wide receivers simply become tight ends, like Brent Jones, Jason Whitten, or Rob Gronkowski. Green Bay’s Jordy Nelson, like the best black wideouts, can do it all: he’s big (6’3″, 215) and plenty fast, having posted a 4.51-40 yard time. (Compare those numbers to the Cowboys’ Dez Bryant: 6-2, 220, 4.52-40) I’m not the first person to notice this, and maybe Aaron Rodgers consistent success has something to do with having #87 around all these years. It’s hard to recall another white wide receiver who’s more than a “possession” receiver or Hail Mary specialist.

NFC SOUTH

Buffalo @ Atlanta

Carolina @ New England

NY Giants @ Tampa Bay

New Orleans @ Miami

Commentariat: give us your best NY Post headlines following the Giants’ upcoming 0-4 start. Here are my submissions:

GI-AINTS SINK IN TAMPA BAY

0-4 SHAME: GIANTS IN NFC BASEMENT

WHO’S MANNING THE STORE? GIANTS IN TROUBLE

HEADLESS GIANTS FOUND IN TOPLESS BAY

(I didn’t say I was any good at this, mind you)

NFC EAST

NY Giants @ Tampa Bay

Washington @ Kansas City

LA Rams @ Dallas

Philadelphia @ LA Chargers

By the time we get to the NFC East, we’ve discussed every matchup already. So a word about my picks: I’m not a gambler. I’m not a deep researcher. I’m just a fan trying to spark a little NFL talk. Sure I went 9-6 last week, but a blindfolded monkey throwing darts at an NFL schedule could have pulled that off. As David Letterman might have put it years ago, this is for entertainment purposes only so please – no wagering.

Sorry, no links this week – very busy time of the week for me.

Is there a less fair sport than football? Put another way, you may recall the Cleveland Indians recently completed 22-game winning streak – well, twenty-two games in baseball covers 13.6% of a team’s schedule. Going into Sunday, twenty-eight of the NFL‘s thirty-two teams have played 12.5% of their schedule. And eight of them are the baseball equivalent of 0-20 to start their season.

After Thursday night’s epic near-comeback, the San Francisco 49ers dropped to 0-3. Starter Brian Hoyer played by far his best game of the season in defeat, posting a passer rating of 98.0 following an abysmal week two rating of 48.2; it’s possible playing the Rams defense at home a week after playing the Seahawks in Seattle might have played a role in each of those performances. Or maybe Brian Hoyer is just now hitting his stride after three weeks, at age 32, and the Niners horrid start definitely won’t prompt sports media figures to call for the Niners to bring back Colin Kaepernick. Against those same two teams at the end of last season, Kaepernick posted passer ratings over 100 in both games. The Niners split those two games.

(The woke sports media loves to cherry-pick stats in Kaepernick’s favor; I thought I’d save them the trouble)

Enough about a terrible team that’s going to get way too much press in the coming week; let’s talk about teams and matchups people give half a damn about.

AFC WEST

Denver @ Buffalo

Oakland @ Washington

Kansas City @ LA Chargers

My favorite division in football this year, and it was pretty damn good last year. The Chiefs, Raiders, and Broncos are all 2-0. Even the 0-2 Chargers are rated highly by pro-football-reference.com, so it’s really the division the NFC East was supposed to be. (The NFC East is the white people of NFL divisions if you ask me) Because the Chargers are better than their record, because they’re at home, because Kansas City is probably feeling a little bit confident about being 2-0 and winning the last five games in this matchup, the pick HAS to be the Chargers, right? I’m going with KC anyway. In fact, the road team’s got all three of these.

AFC NORTH

Baltimore @ Jacksonville

Pittsburgh @ Chicago

Cincinnati @ Green Bay

Cleveland @ Indianapolis

What a clunker schedule for the AFC North this week. On the plus side, we’ll be one step closer to Marvin Lewis losing his job after the Packers take the Bengals apart. After getting embarrassed by Atlanta yet again, with a pissed off Aaron Rodgers and company coming back to Lambeau I don’t see any other result possible. Cleveland is supposed to be on the rise and Indy is pretty terrible at the moment – take the Colts anyway. (Part of the problem with rising teams is that they lose winnable games) Pittsburgh should emulsify the Bears, which leaves the Ravens and Jags. This game intrigues me for a couple of reasons: 1) Leonard Fournette vs the Ravens’ defense. Fournette seems to be from the Earl Campbell school of running backs, which should lead to a highlight play or two – whether it is at his expense or that of a Ravens defender remains to be seen. 2) Jacksonville looked like a bonafide, no-shit NFL team in week one at Houston, then got turned inside out in week two at home against the Titans. It’ll be interesting to see which team shows up for this one. I’m picking the Jags, but it’ll be a close one either way.

AFC SOUTH

Baltimore @ Jacksonville

Cleveland @ Indianapolis

Houston @ New England

Seattle @ Tennessee

I don’t understand how it is the Texans play the Patriots so often. Is this like college, where some powerhouse like Alabama pays Northwest Technical Union State to come in and lose 78-3? Are the Texans getting any benefit whatsoever out of this arrangement? This will be their seventh game in six years. And it’s been such a one-sided series, ESPN hired Sabrina Rubin Erdely to cover the game. Seattle is overrated, as the Titans will demonstrate.

AFC EAST

Denver @ Buffalo

Houston @ New England

Miami @ NY Jets

We’ll see the universe contract before the NFL does, but in the unlikely event of contraction the Jets are my pick for the ol’ Goodell Guillotine. Their uniforms are boring. Their mascot name stupidly rhymes with a bunch of other pro teams in the area. Here is their history in brief:

1) Joe Namath guarantees Jets win in Super Bowl III

2) Joe Namath does an ad for pantyhose

3) NOTHING AT ALL HAPPENS FOR 30+ YEARS

4) Joe Namath hits on Suzy Kolber

5) Head coach Rex Ryan is a foot fetishist

6) Brett Favre…plays for the Jets? How did this…what??

7) The greatest play in the history of professional sports

That’s it. Other inept franchises have had some memorable coaches and players. The Browns had some strong teams in the 80s. The Lions had Barry Sanders and Calvin Johnson. The Bills went to four straight Super Bowls. The Chargers had some fun teams in the late 70s and again in the past 10 years. But the Jets? The most famous Jet after Joe Namath and Mark Sanchez is Fireman Ed.

NFC WEST

LA Rams 41 @ San Francisco 39 (F – 9/21)

Seattle @ Tennessee

Dallas @ Arizona

Probably my least-favorite division in football. The Rams seem to be doing some things right, but the Niners remain a horrid mess, Seattle continues to gradually decline, an inch at a time, from the heights that brought them to two straight Super Bowls. Yes, Russell Wilson is a better QB now than he was then, but his offensive line is not a good one. Beast Mode is long gone, and the defense is not what it used to be. Here, let me show you:

2012 – W/L (11-5) Points Allowed (1st), Yards Allowed (4th)

2013 – W/L (13-3) Points Allowed (1st), Yards Allowed (1st) Won SB

2014 – W/L (12-4) Points Allowed (1st), Yards Allowed (1st) Lost SB

2015 – W/L (10-6) Points Allowed (1st), Yards Allowed (2nd)

2016 – W/L (10-5-1) Points Allowed (3rd), Yards Allowed (5th)

Granted, it’s extremely early, but the Seahawks are 5th and 13th in those same two categories thus far. And Seattle’s Point Differential has taken a hit over the past few seasons:

2013 – +186

2014 – +140

2015 – +146

2016 – +62

And the Cardinals? They’ve got to be the worst good team in football if it’s not the Lions – or if they’re even still any good. A couple of years ago they had a receiving corps that was the envy of the NFL: Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, and Michael Floyd could have made a lot of QBs look good. Fitzgerald was the old man at 32, but Brown and Floyd were 25 and 26 respectively. Well, Fitzgerald is even older now but still around; so is Brown, but his 2015 looks like a flash in the pan, and Floyd wrote his own ticket right out of town. (Okay, technically the police wrote the ticket) And Carson Palmer appears to be on his last replacement hip – have the Cardinals planned for life after Carson? Since he’s currently backed up by Blaine Gabbert and Drew Stanton, I’ma say NO.

NFC NORTH

Pittsburgh @ Chicago

Cincinnati @ Green Bay

Atlanta @ Detroit

Tampa Bay @ Minnesota

Poor Vikings. It’s always something. Losing four Super Bowls, the Herschel Walker trade, the Gary Anderson miss, the Blair Walsh miss, Brett Favre’s interception against the Saints, Bridgewater’s knee…hard to think of a more snakebit franchise in sports. But take heart, Vikes fans – when it does happen, and it will, it will be one of the best days of your life. I’m 42, and I’ve already seen things happen in sports no one ever thought possible: the Red Sox down 0-3 to the Yankees, of all teams, and coming back to win. Cleveland winning a championship of any kind, but in that case against a 73-win Warriors team that was up 3-1. THE FUCKING CHICAGO CUBS. You really think it can’t happen in Minnesota? I remember when the Patriots used to suuuuu-uuuuck. The Warriors were terrible for generations. The Kansas City Royals went 30 mostly wretched seasons in between championships. No, it’s coming one day, you guys. Just hang in there.

NFC SOUTH

Pittsburgh @ Chicago

Tampa Bay @ Minnesota

New Orleans @ Carolina

If Drew Brees plays a full season this year and next, he’ll have more career passing yards than anyone. Doesn’t mean the Saints are any good, but wow, what a career this midget has had. Yes, Brees had Jimmy Graham at his best; who did he have at wide receiver? Marques Colston? Colston was a hell of a player, and quite underrated, but we’re not talking a Jerry Rice/Randy Moss-caliber wideout. Brees didn’t exactly have Walter Payton in the backfield, either. No, Brees brought the New Orleans Saints, one of the NFL’s long-suffering franchises prior to his arrival, to the NFL summit with good talent around him. Put another way: Aaron Rodgers is my personal gold standard at QB, and he’s had better weapons around him than Brees, yet Brees has achieved about as much as Rodgers has. Just thought someone ought to eulogize Brees since he’s 38 and his career’s almost over. Who would have thought signing a 32-year old running back was a bad idea?

NFC EAST

Oakland @ Washington

Dallas @ Arizona

NY Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles

The NHL used to have the Campbell Conference and the Wales Conference. Within those two conferences were the Adams, Norris, Patrick, and Smythe divisions. It’s not clear why the NHL abandoned those names for divisions and conferences; if anything, other sports should have copied the NHL. Going with East and West raises interesting questions, like “What is Dallas doing in a division with Washington DC, Philadelphia, and New York?” In a system similar to the old NHL, we’d simply call it the Douchebag Division and everyone would understand perfectly.

And those Giants…hoo boy. They’re so bad, no one’s going to care in a few weeks. Right now people are freaking out because they think the Giants are somehow capable of righting the ship at this point. I don’t see how.

FWIW and Links:

…the NFL might force the Chargers into returning to San Diego. Only if the Powder Blues are mandatory, along with this song before every home game

…in 2016 Colin Kaepernick had a better interception rate than NFL MVP Matt Ryan. You see, Kaepernick is still a great player! Statistics don’t lie!

…The NFL hates college QB stars? This guy says so, and his evidence is nothing more than a classic sky-is-falling assertion:

The NFL has a quarterback problem. The talent discrepancy is bigger than it’s ever been in my time covering the league and the draft

(Imagine his quote is in Comic Sans for my amusement) If this disparity exists, it should be easy to point to statistical evidence that would show it.

Fantasy Studs and Duds from NFL.com – I’m only sharing this link because of this stupid quote:

Jameis Winston has struggled against top NFL defenses.

Most QBs thrive against top defenses – not Winston!

Anyway, hopefully your gambling goes well enough that you can buy better replacement orphans, and know that you will suffer humiliation when my area sports team defeats your area sports team.