Blog

  • Wednesday Afternoon Links

    Happy Wednesday. Conspiracy theories and lost millions here today. I’m not saying James Harden shat the bed last night, but he definitely made a mess of the end game — twice.

    • I’m not always thankful for the TSA, but given the level of violence on planes recently, maybe folding knives are better not flying in people’s pockets. (TW: Autoplay)
    • I’m no conspiracy theorist, but Trump meets with the highest-level Russians of his presidency the day AFTER he fires COMEY?!! My favorite part is that the Russians were completely surprised by the news.
    • Jeebus, the WaPo is reporting on Nebraska local politics? And a narrow Dem loss? Its participation trophy journalism. Cheer up Dems, the Stupid Party will live up to its name and you’ll make some ground back eventually.
    • I like the cut of this guy’s jib.
    • Better to have “lost” $650M than to have never made it at all, amirite?

    Have a little AC/DC.

  • Deregulating the Maritime Domain – Part 2

    Legislative Hurdles To National Security In The Civil Maritime Domain

    Ie.  A *Starting Point* for Maritime Deregulation

    Part 2.

    3. Commercial Shipbuilding Obstacles Hamstringing Maritime Development

    The second area in which existing legislation could be amended in order to affect a significant increase in national economic well-being is related to shipbuilding and maintenance policies.  Over the years, it is clear that the nation has allowed our shipbuilding capability to deteriorate to levels that severely impact our overall national security.  Simply in order to meet the requirements of the Jones Act, a vessel must be flagged in the US and have an all-citizen crew.  Additionally, the ship must have been built in the United States.

    Of the 126 active, registered shipyards operating in the United States, only 20 are recognized as capable of building large ships – and as demonstrated by the numbers, 10 out of 12 deep-draft vessels delivered in 2014 were ordered by the federal government.  In fact, taking into account the ongoing long-term Naval and Coast Guard construction and modernization projects, over 70% of total shipbuilding and repair revenues come strictly from military orders.  For further comparison, out of 1067 total shipyard deliveries in 2014, only 11 were made to the federal government.

    In short, while there is clearly a robust system for constructing and delivering smaller craft tailor-made to operate in the littoral region and inland waterways of the United States, the national capability to construct large vessels has vastly deteriorated since the second World War.

    • As a point of contrast, consider the shipbuilding industry in South Korea. Reviewing a report from 2015, in 2006 the industry employed approximately 150,000 people directly – but that number should be extrapolated higher over the intervening decade considering the increasing number of deliveries.  By comparison, MARAD recorded a little over 110,000 people directly involved in the domestic shipbuilding industry in 2013 (rising to 400,000 when including secondary jobs associated with the industry).  At the same time, for the year 2013, US shipbuilders delivered 227 ships and commercial vessels of which only 28 were above 2000 gross tonnage (GT) (including government orders) – and of those 21 were offshore support vessels or ocean-going barges.  By comparison, South Korean shipyards delivered at least 301 vessels measuring 5000 GT or more each in 2013, including offshore support vessels.  That there are several magnitudes of difference in production in spite of the numbers of employees involved in both cases reflects several issues.

    An improvement in the economy of scale is a goal to aspire to for any nation – and while the United States was previously capable of great strides in shipbuilding during specific periods such as World War II with the Liberty and Victory class freighters, at this date, delays and cost overruns are common – both in military and civilian shipbuilding.  A new cargo vessel can cost up to three times as much from a US commercial shipyard as one built overseas, while taking significantly longer.  Additionally, a common belief held by commercial carriers and operators is that US shipbuilders contribute to these factors by refusing to commit to fixed price contracts or delivery by a fixed date.

    Liberty Class Freighter

    While these commercial failings are frustrating, they can in turn be attributed in part to  the continuously growing burden of governmental regulations and standards placed on domestic companies, which will be discussed further below.  Traditionally, critics have pointed to lower environmental standards, salaries and costs of living in shipbuilding countries like China and South Korea – but as has been proven repeatedly before, a rising tide lifts all ships and we are rapidly seeing all of those factors approaching the western world – particularly in South Korea.  Simultaneously, examining the governmental policies of South Korea also provides an interesting contrast to the US.  While initially operating on several policies not dissimilar from the US regulations discussed here, by the mid 1980s, the government realized that corporate competition on an international scale was sufficient to allow domestic shipbuilding corporations to operate on their own under free market principles without excessive governmental support – and rescinded several key acts.  Additionally during a recession in the early 90s and periodically since then, the government has recognized the need to make additional capital available for expansions or upgrades of facility but these have been acts of limited duration with the intents of the measures highly specified.  These policies stand in contrast to the domestic regulations discussed here – some of which have been established for over a century and have consequently become that much more ingrained in the political consciousness – and accordingly difficult to address in a reasonable manner.

    • The issue of shipbuilding capabilities touches on several specific factors.  To begin with, it is a very capital-intensive industry.  Unlike building construction, which takes place from the ground up at the desired location – often utilizing a wide variety of mobile, easily transportable equipment and tools, shipbuilding requires very large, very expensive pieces of equipment that must be fixed in place (or potentially very costly to move in a limited fashion) in a set location.  In order to incentivize stakeholders to maintain or upgrade – or even develop and build – these facilities, there must be clearly achievable economic benefits to doing so.  Specifically, they must have an expectation of future orders on which to predicate continue operation – and in turn employee manning, secondary and tertiary orders and subcontracting requirements.
    Vancouver Wharves

    More to the point of this paper – once a company becomes insolvent or determines that the shipbuilding portion of their portfolio is no longer economical, mothballing or shuttering operations is a decidedly final step for equipment and facilities.  Without constant use or maintenance much related equipment – particularly dry-docking facilities or cranes – rapidly deteriorates, and the prime waterfront real estate these facilities occupy can be disposed of equally efficiently.  At this juncture, given the political realities – taking into account environmental regulations, particularly with finding an appropriate location, it would likely be very difficult to build, establish and open a new shipyard domestically without expending an extremely large amount of capital.

    As previously stated, there are well over 100 shipyards currently operating in the United States and many of them operate on a much smaller scale.  The geography of the United States with its myriad rivers and lakes, supports a broader, shallower base of smaller vessels that must still be built to detailed specifications in order to meet Jones Act requirements – which in turn do employ large numbers of employees.  Korea in contrast, builds virtually exclusively for blue-water operations, taking into account that over 90% of deliveries were for international buyers.

    Which consequently introduces the second issue regarding shipbuilding in the United States – to put it bluntly, there is no competitive advantage whatsoever for a corporation to construct a ship domestically.  Even if a company wanted to order large cargo vessels domestically in order to participate in Jones Act commerce, the turnaround time for almost any order would be significant, measured in years at a minimum.  This assumption is predicated strictly on the limited numbers of available domestic shipyards capable of actually constructing a large, ocean-going vessel.  One report commissioned by the US Navy in 1991 estimated that from conception to delivery, a new 42,000 DWT single shaft commercial cargo vessel would take approximately 57 months.  Of those numbers, the 12 month concept development window is the portion that would most likely be reduced – significantly – by the various technological advances that have taken place since the report was generated.  The 15 month contracting period and the 30 month construction period still appear largely accurate under the current industrial environment – although if the vessel was constructed in a shipyard owned by a parent corporation, that would probably result in a reduction in time as well.  While that situation is not rare to see in South Korea, at this date, none of the current US flagged shipping operators maintain their own shipyard facilities – although given the numbers involved, it is clearly not a surprise.

    While MARAD does run a number of incentive programs offering competitive loans and even grants for shipyard and port modernization and fleet upgrades to private corporations, it is telling that only a limited number of carriers reported direct experience with these loans, and that the surface consensus appeared to be that approval was overly complex.  Similarly, the official website for the Small Shipyard Grant program hasn’t been updated since 2013 and as of its last update, reported nearly $10 million in outstanding grant funding.

    (*NOTE*: site has been updated since this article was drafted in 2015 and reports there is no funding currently available – yay – and frankly – who really wants to be on the hook to Uncle Sugar?)

    4. Onerous Tax Burdens

    • One other legislative antique is the Ad Valorem duty on overseas ship repairs for US flagged ships – associated with the Tariff Act of 1930.  In short, for any repair work conducted on a US flagged vessel beyond emergent work necessary for safe operation – that is to say, routine overhaul maintenance or upgrades involving rebuilding more than a certain percentage of the superstructure or replacement of equipment measured in tonnage, must be conducted in a US shipyard or else face a 50% tax on the dollar value of the work.  While this measure was established to direct more work to US shipyards and US jobs, it is difficult to see at this juncture what its value is to the overall economy.  Indeed shipping companies report that even after paying the Ad Valorem duty, they are still saving a significant amount of money over the amount they would pay for the work to be conducted domestically.  This is to say nothing of the time involved waiting for an available shipyard to open up.  With so few large shipyards capable of handling larger cargo vessels, it becomes increasingly difficult to schedule availabilities in a timely manner.  [NOTE:  From my Navy experience the past 7 years, including multiple maintenance periods two of which were in dry-dock (both of which ran multiple months longer than originally scheduled) – this is an understatement if anything.] Different companies have different maintenance standards and while some may schedule repairs and refurbishments in advance of actual faults, in accordance with the tight budgets and timeframes of the shipping industry, others will gladly continue operation until forced otherwise.  In these cases in particular, the lack of an immediately available, affordable shipyard is a key factor in deciding to conduct necessary work overseas.

     

    Part one here

     

  • Wednesday Morning Links

    Hoo-boy! While I was out there living my life yesterday, which means not really paying attention to things online until about 7 pm, looks like a lot happened.  A LOT!

    And since I need to wrap this up and get on the road early so I can get my daughter picked up from college by noon, lets step right into…the links!

    James Comey thinking (allegedly)

    Comey Canned! The man the left reviled probably more than the right was fired by President Trump yesterday…and now the left is trying to make him a martyr even though most of them were calling for his head on a pike since October.

    Cult kidnapping kiboshed! Going clear my ass.

    Helicopter hijinks! Wouldn’t it just be easier to let people shoot intruders rather than have to follow some “must retreat” policy which ends like this?

    Um, this doesn’t look good.

    Piss-poor parking? Or auditions for Death Race 2000 in real life?  Either way, not a very good job.  Which reminds me of something.*

    Think you ever really own your house? Reading this oughta be enough to convince you otherwise.

    I will be prepared for a full update tomorrow on the state of the hockey world after the all-important Caps-Pens Game 7. I know that’s more important than any of this dreck I posted today.

    *Will the days of self-driving cars be filled with hilarity when people pull Will E Coyote: Super Genius  stunts like painting tunnels on the sides of the road in order to catch an annoying-as-shit bird that deserves to die a slow and painful death fuck with the new technology? Because if so, I don’t necessarily think that’s such a bad idea.

    Super Genius

    Anyway, on with your day, friends. And make sure to keep the thugs out of your house too!

  • Jewsday Tuesday: Bubala Please!

    Short one today because I’m doing a real Jewsday for next week (preview: The Man Who Would Be Messiah). But I want to publicize what might be my favorite Jew videos on YouTube. Bubala Please has a simple premise, which is shown in the intro: two gang bangers, Jaquaan and Luis, are about to engage in an exchange of the usual Mex-on-Negro violence when they each discover that the other is Jewish (this is what prevented Heroic Mulatto and me from shooting at each other when we first met in a rather dark alley; the glint of his mezuzah reflected onto my tefillin). Of course that changes everything and, as did HM and I, they become mishpocha. I think you can see where some of my Bible story inspiration comes from.

    Here’s the first episode, wherein the One True Way to make latkes is shown. When I first saw this, I immediately sent it to my mom, who didn’t find it even a little bit funny. And she is totally nonreligious. Go figure.

    And they continue, putos, with an explanation of the Hanukkah bush.

    My favorite is still the Make Your Own Haggadah episode, which I regret not linking in my earlier Passover exegesis. A puta helps greatly. I’m guessing Luis is Sephardic.

    Anyway, you can explore, there were only nine of them made and they were all gems. And they explain the holidays better than I ever could.

    Hag Sameach, bitches!

  • Tuesday Afternoon Links

    Brett is having his wallet molested by a mechanic, so you get links from me today. And none of them are NSFW except maybe this one and that one.

    “Secret” space plane Boeing X-37B

    Spaceplanes, motherfuckers.

    Tunnel at plutonium uranium extraction plant collapses in Hanford (TW:Autoplay video): The AP reports no workers were in the tunnel at the time of collapse. Workers at the site have now been evacuated. Workers farther away were told to remain indoors. Destry Henderson, deputy news manager for the Hanford Joint Information Center, told NBC News. “There are no reports of injuries, no reports of a radiological release.” Gojira hardest hit. (h/t Playa  Manhattan)

    Good Korea elects a new president after forcing their last one into early retirement for being an utter putz. NYT has a great primer on the election and current geopolitical situation in the region. DAEHANMINGUK (대한민국), bitches.

    When all you have is hunger all news looks like a food pun

    Good Gravy: Trump is Poutine his Chips on the Table to Cover the Kurds

    Sessions to review Obama-era policies on drug-crime sentencing “If new charging instructions are implemented, it would mark the first significant move by the Trump administration to bring back the drug war’s toughest practices — methods that had fallen out of favor in recent years as critics pointed to damaging effects of mass incarceration.” (h/t OMWC)

  • Free Will, Moral Agency, and Libertarianism

    While there is a lot of talk of free will in various circles, I always wonder if this has any impact on political libertarianism. Is the question of free will relevant to politics? Or is it more just academic?

    Quoth the Wikipedia: Libertarianism is one of the main philosophical positions related to the problems of free will and determinism, which are part of the larger domain of metaphysics. In particular, libertarianism, which is an incompatibilist position, argues that free will is logically incompatible with a deterministic universe and that agents have free will, and that, therefore, determinism is false. Although compatibilism, the view that determinism and free will are in fact compatible, is the most popular position on free will amongst professional philosophers.

    The first recorded use of the term “libertarianism” was in 1789 by William Belsham in a discussion of free will and in opposition to “necessitarian” (or determinist) views.”

    I will not really answer the question of life, free will, and everything. The great free will debate has been, is, and will be raging in the foreseeable future, most likely dragging neuroscientists, physicists, philosophers, and everyone else for the ride.  I am neither of those things, but a humble guy in possession of internet access, and as such I have my 0.02 fraction of bitcoin/gold ounce/fiat currency of choice to contribute to the proceedings. And so I shall.

    I decided to write … well did I really decide? Maybe from the first moment of the Big Bang it was determined that I will. Oh well, the grandfather of all knowledge must know… Anyway…

    I fairly unambiguously believe in free will – because, otherwise, what is the point of it all? My definition of free will may be tailored to confirm my belief, but without it, if everything is predetermined, is there a use for debate or philosophy – besides being predetermined to debate, obviously? I perceive things as if I have at least some amount of free will, so having it or not, by some scientific criteria or other, is not that relevant to me. I couldn’t tell the difference, either way.

    Obviously I am but a man, and as such, bound by human nature and environment. These things affect everyone. Person X and Y would not make the exact same choices in similar circumstances – there is no such thing as identical circumstances – because each human is different from every point of view. But people being who they are, the existence of some inherent constraints to decisions, does not change the simple reality that humans can and do make decisions.

    Free will in my view is that one is put in the position of choosing, and one can use whatever reason and life experience one possesses to do so. All the things that make me me – being either nature or nurture – are part of what constitutes my free will. At least the way I see it.

    Decide, get feedback, analyse, change. There are always constraints in nature – gravity, the need for food and air, laws of thermodynamics, and many more. Being bound to human and individual nature does not negate free will, like being short preventing you from playing basketball does not negate free will.

    Now some may say at this point you are your brain chemistry, or some such. Be that as it may, there are unique chemical and electrical processes inside each individual human brain. Whether there is or isn’t something more than that to conscience or soul is not essential. Free will can be simply a faculty of the uniqueness of the brain – which leads to each brain making its own decisions, processing data in its own way.

    Some will add stories about people who had an accident and could no longer control themselves. Some people are sometimes, harsh as it may sound, broken. But most normal people are not. The existence of the blind does not negate that humans in general have sight.

    That is not to say you should judge people harshly on their decisions or that you should completely ignore their life and environment. But you can neither eliminate capacity to decide. We all make a bad choice here and there, but 100 bad choices without learning anything, that is something else entirely. And some choices cannot be excused. Taken to extreme, it is not a rapist’s fault he raped someone because he was born one or society made him one.

    Agency and responsibility are part of what makes us human, differentiates us from the simpler creatures – aka food. Humans can go beyond instinct. If you remove agency from people and go to predestination you, in a way, dehumanize, or at the very least infantilize them.

    In pure mechanical views, humans may be seen as a neural network of sorts: get an input, process it in a way, gen an output. Compare the output to the desired one, and if it is lacking go through a learning algorithm to improve processing. Free will is in the uniqueness of all these factors and the ability to consciously realize how these things work, to change the way you process things, to adapt your learning algorithm. The fact that you are aware of what you are, that you are aware how your choice works, that you are not led by blind instinct.

    If you look at free will as something outside physical reality, like God or Soul and whatnot, then the question of is there free will, like the question of the soul, cannot be answered. If you look at it as the existence of reason and self-awareness, like I do, well, there it is.

    So is the question of free will relevant to libertarian politics? Not really, I would say. Everyone is a unique, separate entity, with their own preferences and their own choices. Whether these are purely chemistry or something else is not a factor. You perceive what you perceive, wherever it comes from. As such this has nothing to do with political questions.

    Even if each human being is “predetermined,” he is predetermined in a unique way which gives a unique preference. Even assuming subjective preference is predetermined, it does not change how this manifests in the market and does not change that humans still want to fulfill that preference to achieve subjective satisfaction. There is no valid argument over the predetermined preference of some being imposed by force over the predetermined preference of others.

    Some would say than some people are programmed to make bad choices and can do nothing about it, others are programmed to make better choices. Despite the previously mentioned dehumanising qualities of this view, there is absolutely no way of telling who these people are or getting them into position of power. There is not a clear argument for substituting someone’s preferred outcome to another’s.  And no way to decide if “bad choicers” will be better off with others making their decisions.

    Off course it is very possible that we are all predetermined not to live in libertarianism, but under a bunch of incompetent sociopaths. Could go either way, really.

  • Tuesday Morning Links

    I can thankfully say I didn’t hear about anything political yesterday.  Unless you count watching a couple of chimps at the zoo literally throw shit at each other political discourse.  Either way, it was pretty awesome except for one thing. It made me fear for the future of our planet since it kinda grossed out the two younger German people that were there witnessing it at the same time.  I mean, since when does something, anything, gross out Germans? That nation truly has lost her way.

    Anyway, on to…the links!

    Texas Governor Greg Abbott signs bill making it illegal for state law enforcement officials to not assist federal immigration officers.  The left immediately says elected law enforcement officials should be exempt since they represent will of constituency.  Hey, kinda like Kim Davis, right lefties?  Right?  Where’d they go?

    Harry Kraemer – average guy

    If you thought American cops could be petty, vindictive and generally assholish when they set their mind to something, then it would appear that their Canuckistani brethren have been taking notes. (TW: there are a few stereotypes reinforced in the story.)

    Chicago government releases plan for 760 incredibly valuable acres along Chicago river. Or in other words: Chicago politicians have a new toy with which to peddle influence and enrich themselves.

    The Florida legislature is leading the way in something we can all get behind.  No, seriously.

    DeKalb County Sheriff Jeffrey L. Mann

    I’m not sure how many people would lose their job after being caught with their dick literally out (claims it was a misunderstanding) in a place known for late night prostitution (it was late at night) with a pair of condoms in his pocket (at least he was prepared for that water balloon fight which is what the misunderstanding is, I’m sure) and then running from the cop for a quarter of a mile (because that’s a sure sign of a misunderstanding) and then … aw shit, here’s the back story so you can just read it. Anyway, not sure how many people lose their jobs when that happens and its all over the news.  But I know if you’re the DeKalb, GA county sheriff, then apparently you don’t.

    You want to know how stupid “art” people can be?  Maybe stupid is too strong a word, but THIS is how easily “art” people can be had. I swear, those Nigerian princes need to do a little better targeting in their marketing.  They should just buy donor rolls from all the major galleries and foundations in the world and go after some of those dumbasses.

    That’s it. Enjoy something a little lighter than usual.

  • Manly Monday

    Sugar Free sent this my way, but don’t let that scare you off: “Romance novel cover model wanted in Connecticut robberies is arrested in San DiegoDavid Byers (mildly NSFW) of the (very ritzy, I’ve been there) Solana Beach, CA has apparently been robbing banks (three of them! or one of them twice the story seems muddled) and a gas station in…Greenwich, CT. As far as I can tell he started his life of crime in SD when he stole a rowing machine from his apartment complex gym. Honestly, I’m thinking Zoolander sequel: male Instagram models gone rogue while Derek and friends overcome their increasing irrelevance at the democratization of beauty and save the day. Anyway, Byers randomly resurfaced in NY, PA and AZ before making it back to San Diego where he was driving around applying for jobs while driving a stolen vehicle and of course because he’s a model, he was arrested shirtless (autoplay video warning).

    Something SFW, and something less SFW. Now don’t get me wrong, I would, without question, stick it in crazy in this case, but only with an assumed name and at a hotel. One doesn’t want crazy following one home.

    https://www.instagram.com/p/BHvun0DDkFW/?hl=en

    A SFW example of his professional work (though unless the story is about a closet case with a girlfriend, his photo doesn’t really fit the title).

    When SF sent this my way, the fact that he was a Michael Stokes (mNSFW: man butt and implied nudity) model immediately pinged something in the back of my brain. When I saw the guy’s pictures I realized immediately what it was. Stokes has a type (muscles, bad tattoos) and a style (shiny, bold, uncanny use of HDR) that’s very distinctive and a few years back he did a series–and companion coffee table book–on Veterans who had lost limbs while serving, which began with him shooting Alex Minsky. This launched Minsky’s career as an underwear model, and also a fully clothed model who cleans up well, but where’s the fun in that? The Daily Mail has some fine examples from the book. There’s also a 2017 calendar…because of course there is.

  • Monday Afternoon Links

    Its been a productive Monday so far. Have an extra link and some extra music.

    • There’s an Ice Age acomin’! Just far enough out that NOW! is when we need to fund the research. I’m sorry, do I sound cynical? TW: autoplay

      London Freezing!
    • Dear FBI, I’ll do it for $875K next time. They paid $900,000 to unlock the San Bernadino shooter’s iPhone
    • Trump continues to overperform my expectations in court nominees.
    • Trump: I’m not sticking my neck in that noose. Are we even doing phrasing anymore?
    • Your bullshit scare-study of the day.
    • Let’s you and him fight.
    • This Florida Girl is tougher than you.

    In response to a discussion in the AM Links, I give you three tracks off of three consecutive albums, and I could have picked at least one other song off of each album in place of these, but I just decided to stick to the funky lines. One, two, three.